Nitin V. Guttedar, a former Zilla Panchayat president, is contesting against Malikayya Guttedar and M.Y. Patil, among others. | Photo Credit: FILE PHOTO

Nitin V. Guttedar, who is contesting as Independent, is likely to play spoilsport to the electoral prospects of both the BJP and the Congress candidates in Afzalpur Assembly Constituency this time.

Nitin Guttedar has locked horns with his own brother and BJP candidate Malikayya Guttedar, who has represented the constituency six-times.

Sitting MLA M.Y. Patil too is a formidable candidate and the constituency is headed for a tough triangular fight.

Malikayya Guttedar has represented the constituency six times despite not having a large community base. Looking at the previous elections in Afzalpur constituency, it becomes clear that the candidate’s calibre has reigned over party’s influence in fetching the desired results.

Of the six victories, Malikayya Guttedar has won four times on Congress ticket and once each on Karnataka Congress Party and Janata Dal (Secular) ticket, while his archrival, M.Y. Patil, has won thrice, making his debut in 1978 from the erstwhile Janata Party and in 2004, on Janata Dal(S) ticket. M.Y. Patil contested the 2018 elections on Congress ticket.

The BJP has not yet opened its account in Afzalpur constituency.

In the 2018 Assembly elections, M.Y. Patil won by securing 71,735 votes to defeat Malikayya Guttedar with a margin of 10,594 votes.

This time, the entry of Nitin Guttedar as a rebel candidate has changed the whole election equation in the constituency. A major portion of the votes is all set to be split among the three candidates.

Malikayya Guttedar (BJP), M.Y. Patil (Congress) and Nitin Guttedar (Independent), all the three candidates have been associated with both the BJP and the Congress in the past. In fact, Malikayya Guttedar and M.Y. Patil were also associated with the Janata Dal(S).

Both Malikayya Guttedar and M.Y. Patil are surely going to face the heat as Nitin Guttedar will eat into their votes as many senior party workers, both from the BJP as well as the Congress, have switched sides to join Nitin Guttedar.

Political analysts, meanwhile, say that the tussle between the two brothers may give a clear edge to M.Y. Patil.

On several occasions in the past, Malikayya Guttedar has openly expressed his dissent against Congress leaders Mallikarjun Kharge and the late N. Dharam Singh. This was the main reason that he switched party right before the Assembly elections the last time.

Malikayya Guttedar, who won consecutive elections in 2008 and 2013 on Congress ticket, “dug his own grave” by quitting the Congress to join the BJP ahead of the 2018 Assembly elections, according to a political analyst.

Caste calculations

Going by the caste calculations, the constituency is dominated by Veerashiva Lingayat with strength of around 68,000 votes, followed by Kabbaliga/Koli community with 44,000 votes, Scheduled Castes and Scheduled tribes 38,000 votes, Kurubas around 20,000 votes and Muslims around 26,000 votes.

Kabbaliga is the second most dominant community in the constituency. Interestingly, Shivakumar Natikar contesting on Janata Dal (Secular) ticket and Rudragouda Patil, accused in the PSI recruitment scam, contesting on Samajwadi Party ticket, both belong to this community. It is hard to say how the votes of the Kabbaliga community will be distributed in this election.

The total number of voters in Afzalpur constituency is 2,28,057, including 1,17,230 male and 1,10,806 female voters. There are 10 candidates in the fray, of which nine are from political parties, while Nitin Guttedar is the lone Independent candidate.