President Trump’s latest barrage of attacks against the Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, are reigniting debate about who can fire the central bank head. Now, legal scholars are looking to an upcoming Supreme Court ruling to set a key precedent. 

That case is Trump v. Wilcox, which arose after Mr. Trump fired Gwynne Wilcox from her position on the National Labor Relations Board, an independent federal agency that protects employee rights. The agency is run by five presidentially-nominated board members who, under the current law, can only be removed from office for neglect of duty or malfeasance. Ms. Wilcox, who was terminated by Mr. Trump without cause, argues that her removal was unlawful. 

The president’s ability to remove Mr. Powell could also be bolstered by another recent Supreme Court precedent, Seilla Law LLC v. Consumer Finance Protection Bureau. In that case the high court found that the head of that regulatory agency, “must be removable by the President at will,” as Chief Justice Roberts wrote for the majority. The high court’s precedent from that 2020 dispute suggests that any federal agency chief can be fired by the president, for cause or not.

Ms. Wilcox’s case challenges a Supreme Court precedent from a 1935 case, Humphrey’s Executor v. United States, that bars the president from firing heads of independent, multimember agencies for reasons other than “inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance in office.” That case was brought to the high court after President Roosevelt tried to oust a commissioner of the Federal Trade Commission, William Humphrey, for his policy positions. 

The Humphrey’s Executor precedent has, for nearly a century, curbed the president from exercising “illimitable power of removal.” It also has shielded agencies that hold “quasi-judicial” or “quasi-legislative” powers, like the Federal Trade Commission, the Securities and Exchange Commission, among others, from White House influence. 

Given that the Supreme Court currently holds a conservative majority, legal analysts suspect that the court could be inclined to roll back Humphrey’s Executor and rule in favor of the 47th president in Trump v. Wilcox. Even with that outcome, though, it is not immediately certain whether the ruling will apply to the Federal Reserve. Mr. Powell, for his part, expressed skepticism during a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago on Wednesday. 

“That’s a case that people are talking about a lot,” Mr. Powell said, referring to Trump v. Wilcox. “I don’t think that that decision will apply to the Fed, but I don’t know. It’s a situation that we’re monitoring carefully.” The Fed chairman noted that the central bank’s independence is “very widely understood and supported in Washington and in Congress where it really matters.” 

Proponents of an independent Fed argue that elected officials are likely to prioritize strong economic growth and lower interest rates — to capture the favor of the public — even if the policy is inflationary in the long term. Without political pressures, Fed officials may be more willing to make unpopular decisions, like increase interest rates, if they help improve the economy down the line. 

Economic challenges are likely ahead. During his Wednesday speech, the chairman offered a grim warning about the potential economic effects of the president’s tariff scheme. He predicted that the tariff increases could lead to higher inflation and slower growth — a dreaded stagflation scenario — and hinder the Fed’s ability to stabilize prices and unemployment. Mr. Powell did not say whether the Fed would lower interest rates during their upcoming meeting in May, noting that they will “wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.” 

His address spooked Wall Street — which saw stocks tumble before market close — and appeared to irk the 47th president who, the following day, berated the chairman in an early morning post on Truth Social. 

“The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, ‘Too Late’ Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete ‘mess!’” Mr. Trump posted, referring to the European Central Bank. “Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. Too Late should have lowered Interest Rates, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now.” He added: “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”

Mr. Trump upped the ante during a meeting at the Oval Office on Thursday, insisting that “If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me,” he said, referring to Mr. Powell. Mr. Trump expressed that he was “not happy” with the chairman and accused him of “playing politics” with interest rates. 

Despite Mr. Trump’s public clashes with Mr. Powell, the president’s Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, has been privately cautioning White House officials against ousting the chairman before the end of his tenure in May 2026. Mr. Bessent frets that the move risks destabilizing financial markets, sources told Politico. 

Mr. Trump’s recent comments appear to counter those he made back in 2024, when he told Bloomberg News that he intended to let Mr. Powell serve out his term. Earlier this week, Mr. Bessent said that the administration would begin searching for Mr. Powell’s successor in six months. 

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Correction: Members of the National Labor Relations Board are appointed by the president. An earlier version misstated the selection process.