Every analyst, insider and expert I’ve spoken to during this campaign has said the same thing: with collapsing primary support of the Labor and Liberal parties, it’s been a difficult election to read.

The big national polls can’t pick up on local movements, particularly when voters are backing minor parties and independent candidates in complex ways. Luckily, we have a major edge here at Crikey: incredibly politically engaged and educated readers to call on from all over the country.  

There is no better local insight than from the voters who live there.

So for 23 of the most marginal seats in the country (plus a few “safe” seats competitive for different reasons), we asked our Crikey Eggheads to “stick a wet finger out the window, to see which way it’s blowing”, as one reader in Robertson put it.

What’s the on-the-ground vibe in their local race? Here’s how you are calling the results…

Asterisk * indicates a pseudonym has been used at the reader’s request.

Fowler (NSW)

Raye* writes: “I suspect the current independent Dai Le will win based on polls and the number of posters of her around.”

What to know about Fowler?

“Based on the number of Palestinian flags being draped in people’s windows, the ‘Free Palestine’ signs I see on people’s cars or on t-shirts, Palestinian flag pins being worn by people, as well as current member Dai Le acknowledging that she had received significant correspondence from the community about Gaza, indicates to me that Palestine, not just cost of living relief, is a big issue in our community.

“The Labor candidate Tu Le is allegedly part of the Labor Friends of Palestine movement and appears sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. However, if she is elected, it will be interesting to see whether we see another Fatima Payman situation.”

Robertson (NSW)

Bruce writes: “Reid is a young, chubby, scrubbed ER doctor, perfectly presentable and quite active throughout the seat. The Liberal MP he beat at the last election in 2022 is standing once again: Lucy Wicks, also perfectly presentable and knows her way around politics after holding Robertson from 2013 to 2022. Following her preselection, Wicks was the subject of one or two lengthy and sympathetic pieces in the press. It was also widely reported that she had been the victim of bullying by a party-connected colleague and love interest.”

Warren writes: “Wicks was a Scott Morrison acolyte, a member of his prayer group, and now her preference distributions mirror her beliefs in this area.”

What to know about Robertson?

Colin writes: “The eastern coastal beaches side of the electorate has predominantly been wealthier than those of the inland Western mountainous less affluent side, and so tend to vote conservative. Add to that the very large population of retirement villages and their residents who have retired to the Central Coast from the affluent Sydney north shore and northern beaches areas, who have voted Liberal all their lives, and like higher interest rates for their share portfolio incomes.”

Bruce writes: “From my observations, the Libs won the signage competition — Wicks’ corflutes started going up before the election was called, and I’m sure there are far more blue signs on fences and poles than there are red.

“Also, going by the pre-poll venue in Gosford on a couple of occasions, I was shocked at what seemed to be a lot — a real lot — of Liberal supporters lining the footpath. Many more than Labor. I also noticed that the Liberal t-shirts were a kind of aqua hue, very like a teal shade.”

Cowper (NSW)

John writes: “Pre-polls indicate it’s competitive between Conaghan and Heise. It’s clear preference votes from the nine other candidates will decide the outcome; the majority are right-leaning, likely to steer preferences to the Nationals, having split the primary vote. Will be a tight count between these two candidates as it was in the last election. A deciding factor may be that Conaghan hasn’t established a strong personal vote during his term.”

Lisa writes: “Heise came close last election with very little funding and a lot fewer volunteers … This time she has tons of volunteers and a lot more money from local donations and Climate 200.” 

What do you need to know about Cowper? 

Lisa writes: “Since COVID there are more city folk who’ve moved to the region, shifting the preference for the rusted-on Nationals.”

Katharine writes: “Climate is a big issue. Free TAFE is very popular. The community is, however, very divided; there has been a significant amount of vandalism of Heise’s ubiquitous signs, but their prevalence in people’s front yards is also telling.”

Nina writes: “This has been a Nationals electorate since the 1970s. One of the lowest socioeconomic electorates in the country where One Nation gets more votes than the Greens. Both Labor and the Greens will be preferencing the independent second, on their how-to-vote cards. If Heise gets ahead, it’ll be thanks to preferences. Remember this electorate also includes a high concentration of First Nations folks who do not feel heard by the system. Along with being an area that takes in more migrants and refugees than average… and exploits them. It’ll be interesting.”

Bradfield (NSW)

Philip writes: “With Paul Fletcher retiring (possibly because he was fearful of a serious contest), the Liberals have an unknown candidate in Gisele Kapterian. In contrast, Boele has maintained a high-profile office in the electorate (in Gordon) since the 2022 election and another office opened more recently in the Lindfield-Roseville area.”

What do you need to know about Bradfield?

“As Bradfield was the only Liberal-held seat to vote Yes at the Voice referendum, I believe this electorate is no longer a safe Liberal seat.”

Mackellar (NSW)

Peter writes: “Scamps will win easily. LNP loyalties will be in play, but for true ‘liberals’, Scamps would be the choice.”

Denis writes: “Preferences will heavily favour Scamps. The Greens regularly outpoll Labor and both will preference her.”

What do you need to know about Mackellar?

Denis writes: “Liberal James Brown has plenty of posters and some questionable letterbox statistics on Scamps’ voting record, but this is a more informed demographic and I am not sure it hit the mark. 

“An interesting aspect of the campaign is the effect of the demise of the News Ltd local newspaper The Manly Daily, which is behind a paywall online and effectively irrelevant. The Tawny Frogmouth is a relatively slick, magazine-style monthly distributed free to your letterbox. It’s much more favourable to the ‘teals’.”

Wentworth (NSW)

Though Spender holds Wentworth by a safe margin, the effort the Liberal Party is putting in to win it back makes it a seat to watch.

Faye* (pseudonym) writes: “I think Ro Knox will win … The dominant issue has been the candidate’s level of support for the local Jewish community and Israel. The right-wing campaign against Allegra Spender has been vehement, ugly and untruthful.”

John writes: “Peter Dutton is nowhere to be seen and no mention of nuclear reactors here! The Liberal offer is too thin and Allegra Spender does not scare the thoroughbreds of Wentworth.”

What to know about Wentworth?

John writes: “The only Labor voter on our street will likely vote tactically: putting Spender before Knox on their ballot paper, delivering the incumbent back to Canberra. The betting markets certainly think so: Spender has narrowed to $1.17 on Sportsbet with Knox out to $4.25 at time of writing.”

Richard writes: “The Wentworth electorate has many different micro-cultures. In say Dover Heights, Rose Bay and Bellevue Hill, where there is a higher Jewish community, then Jewish politics is a particularly considered issue … In Dover Heights and surrounds, it is generally a very pro-Coalition community, whereas down in Bondi, there is much more support for the Greens, and the electorate is quite diverse as it extends out into Kings Cross and Darlinghurst. 

“Otherwise, the cost of living discussions seem a little bit strange here. As our air-conditioner tradesman said, this area is basically recession-proof. People keep putting in air conditioners, whatever the interest rates. It is different economically from many other Australian areas.”

Deakin (Vic)

Paul writes: “I don’t think [independent] Jess Ness has been out there enough — visibility and brand. Labor’s Matt Gregg also not that visible from what I have seen. I think the state Labor ‘brand’ is going to make it hard.”

What to know in Deakin?

Greer writes: “Sukkar, several years ago, if I remember correctly, used a fundamentalist religious group to try and remove state Liberals who weren’t ‘right-wing’ enough. The dominant issues here are much the same as elsewhere — cost of living, whether it’s housing, food, etc.”

Kooyong (Vic)

Ian writes: “Ryan has been an involved local member, in contrast to the unpopularity of Dutton.”

Guiseppe writes: “It was closer four weeks ago, but it is hard to see Amelia Hamer getting over the line now with the national swing back to the ALP.”

What to know about Kooyong?

Guiseppe writes: “The electorate is quite split — about 30% clearly think climate change remains #1 alongside governance, and about 40% worry about cost of living and housing affordability; some worry about crime and personal safety; a number are concerned about density and neighbourhood character. Where the booth is located matters a lot — some areas are very pro-teal, others are pro-Liberal.”

Goldstein (Vic)

Steve writes: “Hate to say it, but, despite his being a waste of space, Tim Wilson may get back in. There has been a massive and now accelerating spend on getting Wilson back in Parliament. Until Zoe Daniel took the seat at the last election, it had been a so-called Liberal seat forever.”

Susan writes: “From the sheer volume of material and shit sheets put out by [Wilson supporters], and Scott Morrison no longer being a factor, I think he’ll probably win.”

RB* writes: “I think Zoe will win. Likely with an increased margin. Whilst Tim has a more visible presence than previously, Zoe has done a good job as the local member over the last term, and is broadly popular.”

What to know about Goldstein? 

Mick writes: “The high Jewish vote is likely to support Wilson, so Daniel will need to increase her vote from swing voters cautious about Dutton and the hard right of the Libs, especially in Victoria.”

RB* writes: “The north of the electorate will lean to Tim (the Jewish vote, and ‘old money’ vote in Brighton). Going South from South Road the vote will lean to Zoe (Hampton to Beaumaris), and the ‘new’ part of the electorate (around Highett) will lean to Zoe on a two-candidate basis. There’s been little vandalism of corflutes and billboards — this was a huge issue last election, but there’s been minimal sign vandalism in Goldstein this election.”

Chisholm (Vic)

Virginia writes: “It’s honestly too close to call right now. There’s definitely a feeling that people are ready for change, but whether that translates into enough votes on election day, we’ll have to wait and see. It could all come down to preferences.

Chisholm is always a seat to watch. It’s so diverse … Whoever wins here needs to work hard to understand a really varied community and actually show up for them.”

What to know about Chisholm?

Caroline writes: “Chisholm is shifting. If Kath Davies [independent] performs strongly, it will be a clear signal that voters are looking beyond the party duopoly. The seat could be a bellwether for how independents are reshaping Australian politics.”

Aston (Vic)

Sue writes: “We have quite a few right-leaning micro parties standing candidates in Aston (One Nation, Family First, Trumpet of Patriots, Libertarian), and their preferences will probably go to Cicchiello.”

What to know about Aston?

“The most notable thing about the election in Aston is how little activity or visibility there has been. I have seen quite a few ads for the Liberal candidate online (YouTube, etc) and a couple for the ALP candidate, and there have been a few flyers from each in the mailbox. But I have not seen or heard any doorknockers, nothing in the local paper, nothing in the major papers, no candidates or volunteers at the local shopping centre, hardly any corflutes even — it is almost as though Aston doesn’t exist!”

Wannon (Vic)

Joy writes: “I vote Labor, so I am very much in the minority in Wannon, but that makes me an impartial observer. Alex Dyson signage is everywhere — they have this orange dog cut-out stuck on fences and in windows that apparently are designed to remind the voters about the presence of Dyson. The Liberal campaign is all about discrediting Dyson and not really presenting an alternative. I had to google who the Labor representative is, that’s how invisible she is in Apollo Bay.”

What to know about Wannon?

Rosemary writes: “I’m only a recent resident, but from what people have said to me the thinking is: Tehan’s had a long time in the job and ‘done nothing’, that’s it’s time for a change, that Alex is popular, even in the outer areas (far north west and north east of the electorate, meaning he’s not just popular in Warrnambool and surrounds), and that he’s run a good campaign. People are unhappy about the state of the roads, and even though that’s a state responsibility, they seem to think it’s a sign of Tehan’s neglectful attitude to the electorate. It’s across a range of ages, so it’s not just a generational thing. 

“A Labor guy at the pre-poll booth was saying there’s no doubt in his mind Dyson will win, and he seemed pretty politically savvy.”

Wills (Vic)

Adrian writes: “There’s an element of ‘no great alternative’ that may lead to small shifts away from Labor to Greens, but not enough to overhaul Labor’s 4.6% margin.”

What to know about Wills? 

“In Brunswick, Bell Street is the ‘Tofu Line’: in recent elections, Labor wins to the north in more migrant communities and Greens win south in ‘hipster land’. But walking around the area, I’ve seen almost as many Labor corflutes as Green ones — a possible nod to Labor doing well in Green territory.”

Macnamara (Vic)

Although Burns holds the seat by a safe margin, it has become a three-way contest between Labor, Liberals and the Greens. Preference flows will likely determine the result, making this seat one to watch.

Adrian writes: “I can’t see anyone who votes for the ALP preferencing the Liberal candidate over the Green. So I think a swing to Green and Liberal, with Liberal leading, but ALP preferences getting the Green over the line.”

MS writes: “I suspect that Josh Burns will retain the seat for Labor. I would prefer that the Greens finally succeed, so we have a hung parliament and start to make progress on important climate issues, among other things. However, the Liberals and Labor have done a preference deal in an effort to keep the Greens out.”

What to know about Macnamara?

Adrian writes: “Just looking at how many corflutes and billboards have been put up: there are barely any for Josh Burns, and huge numbers for Benson Saulo and Sonya. I think there are more for Benson than any other candidate.

“For a big part of the electorate, the ongoing crisis in Gaza is the dominant issue. There was a community forum about the candidates’ positions on Gaza a week or so ago, and that devolved into Benson Saulo saying he could identify with Israel because as an Indigenous person he too has a deep connection to the land, just like Israeli settlers. Josh Burns (who is Jewish) was trying to not alienate the many Jewish voters in the electorate without alienating the many ALP voters who see what is happening in Gaza as genocide (which includes me, by the way). The Greens candidate wasn’t even allowed to attend the forum.”

Ryan (Qld) 

Diane writes: “I think Elizabeth will pull it off, but she has stiff competition from the two major parties. Both Maggie Smith (LNP) and Rebecca Hack (Labor) seem like sincere people who would represent the electorate well, within the confines of their party.”

What to know about Ryan?

“About 46% of voters in Ryan are under 45, and seem to be attracted by the Greens’ messaging, including support for renters. But the issue making Watson-Brown’s reelection more difficult is the lack of focus on the climate crisis. Last election, people were red-hot demanding action on climate change. Cost of living issues have really diverted attention from this, with people far more focused on their own personal problems. 

“If the Greens lose this seat, it’s the canary in the coal mine in the fight against climate change.”

Bonner (Qld)

Joe writes: “Vasta’s share of the primary vote last election was 44%. The ALP has campaigned hard but will struggle to increase its primary vote. Then the Greens have been pouring so much into the campaign for neighbouring Griffith that there’s been little visibility in Bonner, and the overwhelming majority of other parties (One Nation, Libertarian, Trumpet of Patriots and Family First) preferences will flow to Vasta.”

What to know about Bonner? 

“Bonner is very diverse, so results will vary significantly from booth to booth, and early results from a few booths are unlikely to be predictive. For example, there is a booth at the Citipointe Campus (Evangelical Christian P-12 school and tertiary college) that will likely show a large Family First vote, yet Bonner is less Christian than most Queensland electorates.

“There is a large and growing Indian diaspora in recent years, including many Sikhs, mostly in the western part of the electorate. Many are very much anti-Modi and fearful of blatant nationalism. The large Chinese diaspora seems to be mostly conservative and financially aspirational. The eastern part of Moreton Bay includes retirees and the Manly yachting set, yet Wynnum is quite ethnically diverse and not posh.”

Sturt (SA)

Rob writes: “I don’t think Verity Cooper (independent) has a chance in a close race.”

Gene writes: “I think Claire Clutterham might pinch it even though James ‘Sleeping Beauty’ Stevens won by 6%+ last time. He has the stink of Dutton on him…”

Julanne writes: “Dr Verity Cooper (from the famous Coopers Beer family) is an admirable Sturt candidate — which means three strong women battling it out. Their preferences are not likely to go to Liberal James Stevens.”

What to know about Sturt?

Sandra writes: “Over a period of four decades, Sturt has always been won by the Libs, no matter the calibre of the ALP candidate. I hope this time the Liberal incumbent can be ousted, and if that happens, I believe the ALP will be the winner, courtesy of preference flows from the Greens and the community independent Verity Cooper. 

“Personally, I would love to see Verity Cooper win: she matches my values, particularly in supporting Palestinian human rights. However, the poor result of independent Jo Dyer running in the seat of Boothby in the last election, despite a lot of publicity, suggests to me that Verity cannot win as she remains largely unknown.”

Leandra writes: “It’s interesting to note that 20 out of 21 of Cooper’s policies, which are based on feedback from the electorate, also Greens’ policies. Surprising to see that the people supporting Verity Cooper are so closely aligned with the Greens, yet we’ve had a Liberal incumbent for years. Few of the 21 policies were consistent with Labor’s policies, and of those that are, Labor has only tinkered about the edges.”

Andrew writes: “Dutton’s referral to the ABC as ‘hate media’ so close to the election could impact votes here. While the electorate is diverse, I suspect that the ABC is a very trusted resource here and his comment may offend many voters.”

Boothby (SA)

Tony writes: “Louise Miller-Frost seems to have done a reasonable job. Nicolle Flint (Liberal) appears as someone who comes from the ‘born to rule’ brigade, which possibly does not go down too well.”

Allan writes: “It has been clear that Louise has been very active, and actively looking out for her electorate.”

What to know about Boothby?

Peter writes: “I do not think that Nicolle Flint will have been forgotten by the electorate, and I doubt that her reemergence will assist the Liberals’ chances. She was (and no doubt is) a truly divisive character. If I recall correctly, she claims to have ‘retired’ before the last election, but it was abundantly clear that she was not welcome in the electorate.”

Moore (WA)

Steve writes: “It’s difficult to predict who will win in Moore this time. The Liberal vote should be split between the Lib candidate (Connelly) and the Lib incumbent who is now standing as an independent (Goodenough). This might mean Labor would be likely to profit based upon 2022 performance, but there’s no anti-Morrison vote this time. I suspect Tom French (Labor)’s support will be diluted by the Greens and independent candidate Nathan Barton (supported by Climate 200).

“I’d bet on the Liberal candidate scraping a narrow win after preferences.”

What to know about Moore?

Ellie writes: “Cost of living and crime seem to be the biggest issues people are concerned about in Moore. I’ve been really surprised by the anti-Green and ‘teal’ rhetoric that’s been in community group pages online. I hope it’s not indicative of how the majority will vote.”

Steve writes: “I live in Hillarys, a conservative, affluent ‘boomer’ suburb that voted ‘No’ at the Voice referendum, but returned the Labor candidate at the state election in May (albeit with reduced margin). 

“One thing to keep in mind is Labor came very close to winning in 2022. Margin from polls on the day was only about 400; it blew out to a few thousand after postal votes were counted. The Liberals are very good at harvesting postal votes in aged care and the religion-based organisations. This might still benefit Goodenough, so the final result might not be known until after the postal votes are counted.”

Canning (WA)

Emma writes: “Hastie propaganda is plastered just about everywhere and he is obviously better resourced than most. Personally I have received 12 flyers and pamphlets from the Liberal Party alone, the majority of which are negatively framing the Labor Party, with two or three promoting Hastie.”

What to know about Canning?

“There should have been more of a focus on aged care. We have a large number of aging community members and that is trending upwards without the resources in place to support their needs. From the outside looking in, I’d keep in mind the Liberals’ hard lean on a Labor smear campaign, and our demographic, which is largely over 65s and young families.”

Curtin (WA)

Ian writes: “I think Kate Chaney will win the seat, though she has a formidable opponent in Tom White (Liberal). The Libs have put a lot of money into his campaign with advertising signs, social media advertisements, endorsements from Liberal heroes of the past and Sky News personalities of the present. However, what they don’t have is an army of volunteers doorknocking, letterbox dropping, pamphleteering, etc. Preferences from the Greens and Labor should tip the balance.”

Eve writes: “Kate has made herself very accessible at public gatherings. For example, after sitting fortnights, she conducts open meetings to report back on that session and her own activities. A consequence has been the education of many electors about the system itself and the complexities of significant issues. I have been impressed to see many people feeling empowered to engage for the first time in politics, and their growing confidence.”

What to know about Curtin?

Simon writes: “Curtin has been a relatively safe Liberal seat for a while. Julie Bishop was well liked, not so much Celia Hammond. It was the climate denialism of the previous Coalition government that pushed Chaney into her win. I think this issue is less prominent now (sadly), and Tom White has plenty of corflutes all over the place. Interestingly, I think Chaney has more corflutes displayed on private properties (especially in Subiaco).

“Chaney comes from Liberal royalty, but seems astute enough to reach out to progressives — mind you, progressiveness in this electorate is a relative matter.”

Tony writes: “In my view, the most dominant issue in Curtin in this election is active and engaged representation of the electorate, rather than being taken for granted as a safe Liberal seat, and ignored for another three years.”

Tangney (WA)

Joseph writes: “I have a feeling the incumbent Labor rep Sam Lim will make it. He is popular among the locals as an individual who had a public profile before he became a Labor candidate, although he may cop the consequences of matters outside his own control (cost of living, in particular).”

What to know about Tangney?

Tiffany writes: “Interestingly, the seat is comprised of a pretty even split of Anglo-Australians and Asian-Australian immigrants, and now their children. With a rise in young people living in Tangney, many of them reaching voting age and still living at home, I could see them helping to swing the vote further to Labor or even the Greens.”

Joseph writes: “Peter Dutton has not performed well in the current campaign with his general cagey-ness on important issues and dog whistling about the ‘China threat’. Tangney has a high proportion of Chinese voters. Oddly, too, the place features many posters saying ‘Keep the Sheep’, directed at the government’s proposed live sheep export ban — but why is this message so far from the rural areas and in the heart of a relatively affluent electorate?”

Lyons (Tas)

Lance writes: “I don’t think Rebecca White (Labor) will get up. When she was state opposition leader, she was seen as ineffective. Nice person, but no mongrel.”

What to know about Lyons?

Peter* writes: “Lyons is geographically very large and covers areas with different interests — tourist hot spots, small towns and some of the poorer outer-suburbs of Hobart. White’s family have been in Lyons for a very long time and are well known in the southern part of the electorate. The Liberal candidate Susie Bower ran in 2022 and is also from a family with a long history in Lyons, but in the northern part of the electorate. In Tasmania the electoral boundaries are the same at both state and federal levels, so comparisons are more relevant. Although Labor lost the 2024 state election, as opposition leader White had the largest primary vote of all Lyons candidates.”

What are your thoughts on your electorate?

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