This would offset the loss of Gilmore on the NSW South Coast, and Aston in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs.

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The Coalition is tipped to regain the seat of Ryan in Brisbane, lose the NSW seats of Cowper and Bradfield, and face tough battles in Wannon and the independent-held seats of Goldstein, Kooyong and Curtin.

As for the formation of the government, a Labor majority of at least 76 seats is now a $1.53 favourite, followed by a Labor minority at $3. A Coalition majority is a rank outsider at around $30.

Famously, Bill Shorten went to the 2019 election as a $1.16 favourite. Sportsbet paid out to punters before the first ballot was counted.

Betting markets had the Canadian Liberal Party at $15 in early February to win this week’s elections.

Outside 2019, the favourite on election day has won every election since 2001. Albanese’s odds are now around those of John Howard when he won the 2004 election.

At the 2022 election, the Coalition was favourite in 65 seats on polling day but actually ended up far worse, taking just 58.

There are a large number of tight seats. For example, in the new West Australian seat of Bullwinkel, Labor’s Trish Cook – notionally the sitting member – is at $1.65 to win while a Coalition victory, with Liberal Matt Moran and the Nationals’ Mia Davies in the running, are $2.10.

Even in Gilmore, Liberal Andrew Constance is around $1.85 to win against sitting Labor member Fiona Phillips at $2.

Prediction markets, where people effectively bet against each other on the outcome, have also shown a sharp move to Labor.

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On the day Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivered the March 25 budget, the Polymarket prediction market put the major parties’ chances of victory at the election at 50-50.

But a flood of money on this market now puts the chance of an Albanese victory at 95 per cent.

Markets have also started looking at the political landscape beyond Saturday.

Sportsbet has Angus Taylor as a short-priced $1.50 favourite to be the next Liberal leader, ahead of Andrew Hastie ($7) and current party deputy Sussan Ley ($7.50).

Treasurer Jim Chalmers is $1.53 to succeed Albanese as prime minister, with Tanya Plibersek at $4.50.

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