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The Chinese government has, to put it mildly, an active interest in world affairs and geopolitics. It has long understood the importance of diplomatic and strategic inflection points, and it has long enjoyed the reputation for the calculated application of pressure.
It is, in short, impossible to imagine that Beijing is not watching the pre-conclave preparations with interest. And it is equally hard to conceive that they have not gamed out the potential results, and identified their preferred outcome.
But what may they have concluded — and who would be the preferred candidate of the Chinese government?
While it is impossible to say for certain, there are certainly a few clear datapoints to consider, and some reasonable, though surprising, conclusions to draw.
Conventionally, Cardinal Pietro Parolin has been widely considered to be a preferred candidate of Beijing. But in recent days, it has begun to appear that China could be laying the groundwork to throttle back a Parolin candidacy — in favor of another papal candidate.