Analysis: Trump’s Tariffs Disrupt Global Trade Without a Clear Strategy - The New York Times


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Key Points

The article analyzes the Trump administration's approach to tariffs, highlighting its lack of strategic planning and the potential for escalating trade wars.

Lack of Planning

Administration officials acknowledged insufficient consideration of potential economic consequences, focusing on immediate action without long-term strategy.

Escalation with China

The article details the rapid escalation of trade tensions between the US and China, citing the absence of substantive discussions before imposing tariffs. The situation is characterized by escalating tariffs without a clear de-escalation plan.

Unclear Strategy

  • The absence of a coherent strategy for managing the global economic impact of the tariffs is highlighted.
  • The reliance on threats and negotiations without a clear framework for resolution is criticized.
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As the breadth of the Trump revolution has spread across Washington in recent weeks, its most defining feature is a burn-it-down-first, figure-out-the-consequences-later recklessness. The costs of that approach are now becoming clear.

Administration officials knew the markets would dive and other nations would retaliate when President Trump announced his long-promised “reciprocal” tariffs. But when pressed, several senior officials conceded that they had spent only a few days considering how the economic earthquake might have second-order effects.

And officials have yet to describe the strategy for managing a global system of astounding complexity after the initial shock wears off, other than endless threats and negotiations between the leader of the world’s largest economy and everyone else.

Take the seemingly unmanaged escalation with China, the world’s second largest economy, and the only superpower capable of challenging the United States economically, technologically and militarily. By American and Chinese accounts, there was no substantive conversation between Mr. Trump and China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, or engagement among their senior aides, before the countries plunged toward a trade war.

Last Wednesday, Mr. Trump’s hastily devised formula for figuring out country-by-country tariffs came up with a 34 percent tax on all Chinese goods, everything from car parts to iPhones to much of what is on the shelves at Walmart and on Amazon’s app.

When Mr. Xi, predictably, matched that figure, Mr. Trump issued an ultimatum for him to reverse the decision in 24 hours — waving a red flag in front of a leader who would never want to appear to be backing down to Washington. On Wednesday, the tariff went to 104 percent, with no visible strategy for de-escalation.

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