Prime Minister Mark Carney’s aim to reduce immigration to “sustainable levels” will be achievable only on paper unless changes are brought in to ensure that Canada doesn’t continue to undercount the number of non-permanent residents living here, economists warn.

Mr. Carney, at his first press conference after the election, pledged to cap the total number of temporary workers and international students at less than 5 per cent of Canada’s population by the end of 2027.

“It‘s a sharp drop from the recent high of 7.3 per cent. This will help ease strains on housing, on public infrastructure and social services,” he said.

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The Prime Minister is sticking with the targets set out late last year by then-immigration minister Marc Miller when he set out a plan for future levels of permanent and non-permanent residents.

But economists who have analyzed immigration statistics say that any reductions would not reflect the true number of temporary residents living here and may mean that pressure on housing and services will not be eased to the extent expected.

Official population figures also fail to capture undocumented migrants who last year Mr. Miller estimated could number about 600,000.

The economists warn that Ottawa is overestimating the number of temporary migrants who leave the country once their visas expire. This could have a serious impact on planning, including for housing demand, they say.

“The undercounting of non-permanent residents is an issue that must be addressed in order for this policy to be effective,” said Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist of CIBC.

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There are just over three million non-permanent residents in Canada, according to the latest Statistics Canada population estimates.

Non-permanent residents include international students, work-permit holders, asylum claimants and family members of work- or study-permit holders.

Population estimates by Statscan presume that visa holders whose permits to stay here have expired leave the country within 120 days, but many do not leave and remain and work in Canada, said Henry Lotin, a former federal economist and founder of the consultancy Integrated Trade and Economics.

“We know that many, perhaps even half, of these expired visa holders are awaiting permanent residency or a renewal of their temporary visa,” Mr. Lotin said. “The population estimates as presented assume expired temporary residents leave the country − that is a fiction.”

“Policy makers and planners need accurate population estimates to plan adequate housing, infrastructure, health care and other social services. No one plans for population you are told you do not have.”

An analysis published last month by Mr. Tal, with input from Mr. Lotin, also expressed concern that Statistics Canada is not counting people with extended Temporary Resident Visas who do not have work permits.

Temporary Resident Visas are often issued to long-term temporary residents whose student or work visas are expiring and who are waiting for renewals or applications for permanent residency. In some cases, applications can take years to process.

As well as setting targets for permanent residents, last year Ottawa set levels for temporary residents in the 2025-27 Levels Plan at 673,650 in 2025, 516,600 in 2026 and 543,600 in 2027.

Immigration lawyer Richard Kurland said one way to reduce temporary residents is to stop extending their visas after they have expired, and to warn people about the “no-extensions policy to discourage new temporary status applications.”

“People get temporary status for a certain period of time. Just tell people that they will not be able to stay here in Canada any longer than that,” he said. “It really is that simple.”

According to Statistics Canada, there were 28,341 fewer non-permanent residents in the country on Jan. 1, than on Oct. 1, 2024. This was the largest decline since the third quarter of 2020 when pandemic-related border restrictions stopped people coming to Canada.

“We are confident in the accuracy of our demographic estimates and we continue to seek new data and methods to further refine our statistics,” Statistics Canada said in a statement. “For example, last fall Statistics Canada acquired entry/exit data from the Canada Borders Service Agency. These data notably provide information of departure from the country. We are currently assessing how these data could be integrated to inform demographic estimates in the future.”

“Statistics Canada’s demographic estimates consider people with expired permits who are in the process to renew their permit by using IRCC published permit processing times. As a result, they are still included in demographic estimates.”

Before the election, Mr. Miller put on ice plans to set up a program to allow undocumented migrants to apply to remain in Canada. He said the government would look at crafting paths to permanent residency for certain classes of undocumented migrants instead.

Syed Hussan, spokesperson for the Migrant Rights Network, said the new Liberal government should get away from a focus on numbers and look at the rights and treatment of migrants. He said Ottawa should look again at a path to permanent residency for undocumented residents of Canada.

Matthew Krupovich, a spokesman for Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, said in a statement that “temporary residents (TRs) admitted to Canada are expected to comply with the terms of their visitor, work or study permit, and must leave Canada at the end of their authorized period of stay.”

“The 5-per-cent reduction to the temporary residents’ population will be achieved through IRCC’s multiple TR reduction measures, which include international student caps and tightened eligibility requirements for temporary foreign workers,” he said.

“We are continuing to monitor the effectiveness of our TR reduction measures to help stay on track to meet the projected reduction.”