The article posits that despite the trade war with China, hardline China hawks within Donald Trump's administration are losing influence. Policy decisions seem inconsistent, reflecting internal disagreements.
The author highlights three distinct factions within Trump's foreign policy team:
The trade war has exacerbated these existing divisions, rather than creating a unified response.
The central claim is that regardless of Trump's personal stance, the traditional hardline China hawks (both primacists and prioritisers) are witnessing a decline in their power to shape policy.
Even before Donald Trump’s tariff turmoil, it was hard to discern a clear China strategy. With decisions depending largely on presidential whim, his foreign-policy advisers seemed to have split into warring tribes. To use a shorthand common in Washington, the “primacists” seek to re-establish America’s dominance in the world, taking on all threats; the “prioritisers” think America can handle only China and should abandon Ukraine; and the “restrainers” want to focus on only the homeland, avoiding future wars. Since April 2nd Mr Trump’s trade war has sown further confusion. But whatever his own views, one thing seems increasingly clear: conventional China hawks, whether primacists or prioritisers, are losing ground in the battle for influence.
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