The European Central Bank (ECB) decreased borrowing costs by 0.25 percentage points, marking the seventh rate cut in under 12 months. This decision comes as concerns about the impact of US tariffs on the global economy outweigh inflation worries. ECB President Christine Lagarde highlighted a 'major escalation in global trade tensions' and increased 'downside risks to growth' as key factors driving the rate cut.
The focus has shifted from inflation (which slowed to 2.2% in March) to the weakening European economy and the potential negative effects of US tariffs. While President Trump has paused some tariffs, many remain, causing financial market volatility and uncertainty regarding the future trajectory of interest rates. The ECB's statement acknowledges the dampening effect of tariffs on exports, investment, and consumption.
Markets anticipate further rate cuts, especially if the consequences of tariffs exceed expectations. The new 2.25% rate is considered neutral by the ECB. The bank removed the word 'restrictive' from its statement. The main concern now is that US tariffs will hinder recovery in the Eurozone, potentially pushing price growth below the ECB's 2% target. Even with a pause on reciprocal tariffs, EU products still face 10% tariffs for 90 days, leaving future prospects uncertain.
Analysts, such as Davy investment strategist Stephen Grissing, point to the tariff announcements as unexpectedly changing the economic outlook and forcing the rate cut. Internationally, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva warns of 'off the charts' uncertainty over global trade policies and predicts the US tariffs will negatively impact global growth and potentially create financial market instability. However, the IMF does not yet forecast a global recession.
The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered borrowing costs by a further quarter point (0.25 of a percentage point) on Thursday as the market turmoil from US tariffs overtook inflation as the chief concern.
With ECB president Christine Lagarde warning about a “major escalation in global trade tensions” and increased “downside risks to growth”, Frankfurt policymakers cut interest rates for seventh time in less than 12 months, bringing the bank’s benchmark deposit rate down to 2.25 per cent from 4 per cent.
With inflation across the bloc continuing to moderate (it slowed to 2.2 per cent in March), the focus has switched from price growth to Europe’s flagging economy and the looming impact of US tariffs.
[ ECB interest rate cut: What does it mean for mortgage borrowers?Opens in new window ]
The bank’s latest move will provide a modicum of relief for mortgage holders here but it comes at a time of deep uncertainty for the global economy.
“Downside risks to economic growth have increased,” Ms Lagarde told reporters in Frankfurt, indicating it would take time for the full consequences of US tariffs to materialise.
“The major escalation in global trade tensions and associated uncertainties will likely lower euro-area growth by dampening exports, and it may drag down investment and consumption,” she said. “Deteriorating financial-market sentiment could lead to tighter financing conditions.”
While US President Donald Trump has paused most tariffs, many remain in place and volatility in financial markets has complicated the path for interest rates.
[ Mortgages: The five big mistakes to avoid as interest rates come downOpens in new window ]
Markets are pricing in further rate cuts this year particularly if the fallout from tariffs proves bigger than expected. The new 2.25 per cent rate is at the top of the range which the ECB considers neutral, neither boosting nor inhibiting growth.
Hence the bank dropped the word “restrictive” from its statement.
With inflation in retreat, the fear now is that US tariffs dampen recovery in the euro zone, potentially dragging price growth below the ECB’s 2 per cent target.
Even with Mr Trump’s “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs on pause, EU products face 10 per cent tariffs for 90 days, with no firm indication on what happens beyond that.
On the outlook for inflation, the ECB said: “The disinflation process is well on track. Inflation has continued to develop as staff expected, with both headline and core inflation declining in March.”
“Services inflation has also eased markedly over recent months,” it said.
Davy investment strategist Stephen Grissing noted that “following the ECB’s March meeting, there was growing anticipation of a pause in the rate-cutting cycle, especially after Germany’s significant fiscal measures aimed at stimulating economic growth.”
“However the situation took a turn due to the tariff announcements on ‘Liberation Day’ which has increased risks to the euro zone’s economic outlook. Consequently, the decision to pause rate cuts at the April meeting was taken out of the hands of the ECB,” Mr Grissing said.
Separately president Trump has lashed out Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell, saying his “termination cannot come fast enough!”
This was after Mr Powell in a speech on Wednesday warned that US tariffs on about 60 countries would increase domestic prices and reduce hiring, presenting a “challenging scenario” for the US central bank by putting its two main goals – stable inflation and a healthy labour market – in tension.
Recent Eurostat data showed that inflation in the euro area rose at an annual rate of 2.2 per cent in March, compared with 2.3 per cent in February. A measure of core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as petrol and food, dropped from 2.6 per cent to 2.4 per cent in the same period.
Meanwhile, Uncertainty over global trade policies is “off the charts”, the head of the International Monetary Fund Fund has warned, saying Donald Trump’s tariffs were set to hit global growth, push up prices and potentially play havoc with financial markets.
Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday that the ongoing “reboot of the global trading system” by the US, the fund’s biggest shareholder, would lead to “notable markdowns” in growth estimates. But while the IMF will next week raise its forecasts for price pressures, it will stop short of predicting that the US president’s policies will push the global economy into an outright recession.
“Financial markets volatility is up,” said Ms Georgieva in a speech. “And trade policy uncertainty is literally off the charts.”
Skip the extension β just come straight here.
Weβve built a fast, permanent tool you can bookmark and use anytime.
Go To Paywall Unblock Tool