About 14 months ago, Elias Pettersson was at the absolute apex of his powers.

Vancouver’s star center entered the 2024 All-Star break scoring at a 45-goal, 107-point pace. He had just been named one of the NHL’s “Three Stars” for January after torching opponents for 14 goals over 13 games. Coming off a 102-point breakout the season prior, he was cementing himself as one of the top handful or so centers on the planet. The Vancouver Canucks were tied for first place in the league standings. And Pettersson was only weeks away from putting pen to paper on a mega eight-year, $92.8 million contract extension, the most lucrative deal in Canucks history.

Nobody could have known it then, but that was the last time — at least for now — that we’d see Pettersson performing like a game-breaking star.

On the other side of the 2024 All-Star break, he looked like a superhero who had lost his powers. He slumped to a pedestrian 25 points in his last 33 games, which included just three five-on-five goals. He followed that up with a nightmare playoff run where he scored one goal in 13 games.

At last year’s end-of-season availabilities, Pettersson revealed that he’d been dealing with a nagging knee injury that had progressively worsened since January. That timeline coincided with the mysterious decline in his production at the end of last year. It explained those struggles and gave the market optimism that he’d get healthier in the summer and return to an elite level for 2024-25.

That bounce-back never happened. Pettersson stumbled to just 15 goals and 45 points in 64 games this season. He went from being universally adored in Vancouver to a whipping boy, with his $11.6 million cap hit (fifth highest in the NHL) tied heavily to the criticism.

It’s rare for a player in his mid-20s to fall this dramatically for more than a full calendar year. What’s changed in his game that’s led to his disappointing offensive output? How likely is he to rebound moving forward? Let’s dig into some numbers and eye test observations.

Pettersson’s speed and rush offense have dramatically fallen

One of the biggest differences all season has been how flat and lethargic Pettersson’s skating has looked. It’s been particularly noticeable when he’s transporting the puck through the neutral zone. The numbers bear this out, too — Pettersson’s top skating speed and speed bursts above 20 miles per hour are down significantly compared to two years ago.

Data courtesy NHL Edge

At his peak, Pettersson could dynamically carry pucks through the neutral zone and create rush chances. For example, look at how fast he’s able to gallop up the ice and score this overtime winner against the Blues two years ago:

Here are two more clips from past seasons that show how explosive Pettersson once was. In the first video, he races down the ice to impressively win a loose puck race short-handed and turns it into a partial breakaway. In the second clip, he beats the defender to a prime shooting location inside the faceoff dot and scores off the rush.

We rarely saw him reach top speeds like that this season. In the clip below, watch how Pettersson’s clunky acceleration allows the backchecker to close the space and force a harmless dump-in.

There have been countless situations like that where an opportunity for him to build speed through the neutral zone has fizzled out because his skating lacks a separation gear. Some would argue Pettersson needs to work harder at moving his feet, but I’d say that criticism applies more so when he doesn’t have the puck. When he has the puck, it genuinely looks like he’s putting maximum effort in, but his legs simply aren’t able to move fast enough.

According to Corey Sznajder’s All Three Zones tracking project, Pettersson drove 35 percent fewer controlled entries per 60 in 2024-25, compared to his peak two years ago. Pettersson’s ability to generate shots off the rush, meanwhile, has fallen by over 40 percent according to this dataset. Put simply: He isn’t carrying the puck into the attacking zone with control nearly as often — presumably because of his hindered foot speed — and it’s had a devastating impact on his ability to generate offense in transition.

Data via Sznajder’s tracking project

As a result, Pettersson is playing more dump-and-chase hockey than usual. Some would argue that Pettersson’s declining rush offense is tied to Rick Tocchet’s system, but I don’t buy that theory for a few reasons:

• Pettersson scored 112 points in 85 games, from Tocchet’s first day as Canucks head coach up until last year’s All-Star break. If Tocchet was the main problem, you wouldn’t have this large a sample size of Pettersson dominating under him.
• Filip Chytil generated zone entries and rush chances at an extremely high clip before he got injured. That proved that creative, dynamic centers can drive transition offense in Tocchet’s system.
• Pettersson scored zero points for Sweden at the 4 Nations Face-Off, where he was reunited with his old Växjö head coach, Sam Hallam. If the limitations of Tocchet’s system were the problem, Pettersson should have flourished at this tournament away from him.

Inability to use stickhandling/dekes to beat defenders and get to the inside

“Bro, do your dekes” became a famous rallying cry in Vancouver during Pettersson’s rookie season. He was getting comparisons — even from players on other teams — to Pavel Datsyuk. Pettersson was incredibly poised with the puck under pressure, deceptive like a fox, and could gracefully dance around his opponents because of his elite puck handling.

He could turn relatively low-danger offensive situations into threatening attacks by opening up new shooting or passing lanes to break down defensive structures. It’s how he’d take the puck from the perimeter to the inside.

For example, let’s break down an assist he picked up from the first half of last season. Pettersson carries the puck in on a relatively harmless three-on-three rush. He has possession far to the outside on the left wing, where most players wouldn’t see an opportunity to make a dynamic play.

Pettersson suddenly makes a slick move to cut to the middle, which opens up a ton of time and space.

He then takes advantage of the room by firing a perfect backdoor pass to Brock Boeser to set up a goal. He created something out of nothing by manufacturing a new lane on the inside because of his deke.

Here’s a montage from previous seasons showing several examples of Pettersson’s creative, high-end stickhandling/dekes and how it helps him drive offense.

This season, the smoothness and swagger that used to define his puck play were missing. Pettersson was far more reluctant to attempt high-risk, high-reward dangles. He played it safe, which made it difficult for him to take the puck to the inside.

When he did attempt dekes this year, he often looked clunky and turned pucks over. In the play below, he tries to take the puck from along the boards and make a drag move to the inside. The Dallas Stars’ penalty kill easily reads it, shuts it down, and clears it out.

Here’s another example where he tries to carve his way through a high-traffic area on a power play, only to lose the handle.

And here’s one more:

When you combine the drop-off in his skating speed with the decreased effectiveness of his stickhandling/dekes, you begin to understand why Pettersson has been stuck to the perimeter offensively: He’s lost the elusiveness in his game. For Pettersson to get to the inside more regularly, it isn’t just a matter of hustling or trying harder. He needs to regain the high-end finesse, poise and confidence that previously allowed him to get to dangerous offensive spots on the ice.

Pettersson seemed to be regaining some of those dekes and creative confidence in March when he scored 10 points in his last nine games, but he unfortunately got hurt and was shut down for the remainder of the season.

What happened to Pettersson’s shot?

When Pettersson entered the league, his shot was an undeniably elite weapon. He had a pinpoint accurate wrister that could ruthlessly pick corners. He boasted a rocket of a one-timer, which was evidenced by his winning the Hardest Shot competition at the 2023 All-Star Game. Here’s a video package showing some of his ridiculous one-timer goals from previous years.

Pettersson’s shot volume has cratered. In 2022-23, Pettersson fired 257 shots on goal through 80 games, an average of 3.2 per game. This season, he mustered just 109 shots in 64 games, an average of 1.7 per game. That’s a near 50 percent drop-off.

Part of the problem is that his decreased speed and elusiveness have made it harder for him to take the puck to prime shooting locations. The other issue is that he’s often been hesitant to shoot and double-clutched with the puck, especially on the power play.

In years past, he’s been clinical, decisive and has had a clear killer instinct when he’s found daylight to shoot. Here’s an example of that from last season.

Compare that to how tentative and deferential he’s looked in some of the plays below from this season:

NHL Edge data shows that his shot velocity has taken a dip, too. Two years ago, Pettersson registered 110 shot attempts that were at least 80 miles per hour. In 2024-25, however, only 25 of his shot attempts were 80 miles per hour or higher.

What’s next for Pettersson and the Canucks?

We’ve identified the specific parts of Pettersson’s game that have slipped compared to his peak, but it’s hard to find concrete explanations for why so many of those traits have diminished.

A few theories have been floated. It’s been widely reported that the Canucks weren’t thrilled with Pettersson’s training and preparation last summer. It’s also fair to wonder if there’s still some kind of lingering physical ailment — whether it’s tied to his knee injury from last season, or something different — because how else would you explain a player in his prime aged years experiencing such a noticeable drop-off in his speed? There’s almost certainly a mental aspect too, as his confidence and swagger have been zapped.

So, how likely is he to bounce back?

In my mind, Pettersson’s ability to return to elite form will hinge quite heavily on his physical attributes — his acceleration, top speed and the velocity of his shot — rebounding. If those physical attributes return to normal, the confidence/swagger/mental struggles will likely just sort themselves out. On the flip side, if he continues being a mediocre skater and if his shot can’t consistently overpower goaltenders from distance, his game likely won’t be dynamic enough to be a point-per-game producer.

Without having answers to why his skating and shot velocity have dipped, it’s really hard to predict whether he’ll bounce back next season. Pettersson scored 412 points in 407 games across his first six NHL seasons — a track record like that makes me lean toward believing he’ll be significantly better next year, but I’m far from fully confident.

The Canucks have an era-defining decision to make on Pettersson’s future this offseason. The 26-year-old has no trade protection right now but has a full no-movement clause that kicks in on July 1. If management is bearish on Pettersson’s future, and the remaining seven years of his $11.6 million cap hit, they could ship him out before the NMC kicks in.

On the other hand, the Canucks need to add a top-six center even if they keep Pettersson; they’ll suddenly need two if they trade him away. Considering how weak the center market is expected to be in free agency and trade, can the organization really afford to ship out its highest-ceiling forward? Vancouver needs to take a step forward next season because Quinn Hughes is going to be eligible for a new contract extension during the 2026 offseason.

The Canucks are so desperate for high-end centers and game-breaking offensive drivers in general, that they may have no choice but to bet on Pettersson again next year, even with the risk that would carry based on this year’s struggles.

(Top photo: Bob Frid / Imagn Images)