The Alberta riding of Battle River-Crowfoot is roughly 3,000 kilometres away physically, and a good few light years away culturally, from the Ontario riding of Carleton, which Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre held for the last 20 years – up until the recent federal election.

Yes, both are historically blue ridings, though Battle-River’s blue is that deep, rich, saturated hue that can disappear a bit of red in an instant, like a drop of blood in the ocean. Yes, both encompass rural areas, but Battle-River’s population density was 2.1 per square kilometre in 2021, compared to 111.5 per square kilometre for Carleton in the same year (notably, pre-redistribution). Roughly half the population of Battle River-Crowfoot had no education beyond high school according to 2021 census data, compared to just a third in Carleton.

Essentially, Battle River-Crowfoot is a working-class riding, where the majority of the people look like each other and earn their living using their hands. It’s the type of riding where Mr. Poilievre’s campaign slogan of “boots not suits” likely wouldn’t have offended tens of thousands of his own constituents.

But the difference that will pose the most significant challenge to Mr. Poilievre, if and when he wins the riding, is its attitude toward Ottawa. Indeed, Battle River-Crowfoot is precisely the type of rural riding where Alberta separatist sentiment runs deep; where groups like the Alberta Prosperity Project, which actively campaigns for Alberta’s sovereignty, finds its most energetic support. Yet that support doesn’t necessarily translate to the Conservative Leader.

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During an event in Calgary last month, the group’s co-founder, Jeff Rath, told attendees that Mr. Poilievre was a “Trudeau Liberal” who “couldn’t get re-elected in Ottawa, which is really where he belongs, [so] he’s now coming to run in Battle River-Crowfoot.” Though we don’t know exactly how prevalent separatist sentiments are in the riding, recent polling has shown support for separation around 30 per cent province-wide.

Mr. Poilievre is on record opposing Alberta sovereignty, which is the only position that a federal politician – and especially one that wants to be prime minister – can take. “I’m a born-and-raised Albertan. I love Canada. I think we need to unite this country,” he said last month. At the same time, he said, “Albertans have a right to be frustrated. I think the message to the government in Ottawa, the Liberal government, is you can’t tell Alberta to just pay up and shut up.”

There is little daylight between Mr. Poilievre’s position on separatism in Alberta and that of Damien Kurek, who resigned his seat this week to trigger a by-election as a means to get Mr. Poilievre back in Parliament. In 2021, Mr. Kurek wrote a column for a regional newspaper, The Oyen Echo, in which he called himself “both a proud Canadian and Albertan,” and said that “the fact that many Albertans, and folks from other Western provinces, are even considering separation should concern every Canadian.”

“Government needs to not only know what they are responsible for but where they should not be involved,” he wrote.

Mr. Poilievre could write that same column today without betraying the principles for which he has long stood, but its reception in Battle River-Crowfoot would likely be different. Though Mr. Poilievre indeed grew up in Alberta, he has spent his adult life wearing a suit in Ottawa, and not a cowboy hat on his family’s farm like Mr. Kurek. That invariably makes him seem like an Ottawa transplant lecturing Albertans on their priorities, rather than an insider discussing sovereignty among friends. It also doesn’t help that Mr. Poilievre’s representation of the people of Battle River-Crowfoot has been described, both by Mr. Kurek and Mr. Poilievre, as “temporary.” If he’s not careful, the Conservative Leader could leave the impression that he is simply using his prospective constituents as a means to an end.

But Mr. Poilievre’s representation of the riding also presents an opportunity to meaningfully quell separatist sentiments – that is, if he does the work on the ground and spends meaningful time in his community. (Mr. Poilievre’s lack of face time in Carleton is one of the reasons locals cited for shifting their support to Liberal Bruce Fanjoy.) Battle River-Crowfoot will (likely) soon be represented by one of the loudest and most influential political voices in Canada: someone who can channel their frustrations and echo them to a national audience. Indeed, one of Mr. Poilievre’s foremost strengths is mirroring the angst of those he represents, whether on the topic of housing, cost of living, or the carbon tax. That process alone may provide a release valve for the pressure that, until now, had nowhere to go except toward the separatist movement.

To be sure, it will be a tricky tightrope for Mr. Poilievre to walk. But if he navigates it well, it could be to the benefit both of the people of Battle River-Crowfoot, and for Canada writ large.