The Democrats, though losing to Trump in Washington, are gaining ground at the grassroots level. House Democrats are holding town hall meetings in Republican electorates and receiving a surge of support from voters. The guerilla tactics are hurting. Republican leaders have told their members not to have in-person town hall events because they will face angry voters fed up with what Trump and Musk, the enforcer of the mandate to slash government spending, are doing.

Trump’s base is also being teased with the chance to support a third term for Trump – if alive, he will be 82 in 2028 – even though the Constitution specifically forbids it.

The Trump tariffs are the biggest tax increases in American history. If the economy slows and goes into recession, if unemployment rises, if prices surge, if interest rates go up again, Trump loses political capital at home.

This is crucial for the tech bros from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia – who have supped with or met Trump. They are all in now. But they are globalists. If Trump’s trade wars tank the US economy, they could turn on Trump in a New York minute.

Trump wants Canada to become the 51st state. Canada is raging against Trump over his tariffs. The era of deep ties with the US, says Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, “is over”. In a rare display of rebellion (for now), four Republican US senators broke ranks on Thursday to vote with the Democrats in a bid to block those tariffs against Canada. And Carney may win his election this month on the back of anti-Trump sentiment.

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Trump, meanwhile, still insists the US “has to have” Greenland, which is under the sovereignty of Denmark, another NATO ally. He projects power but he has not succeeded on his foreign policy promises. In the campaign, he said he could end the Russia-Ukraine war “in 24 hours”. It won’t be over in 2400 hours. The war in Gaza rages on, with no Arab buyers for Trump’s “Riviera” vision for the territory.

Australia has not been spared by Trump’s Liberation Day. A century of mateship has been soiled. The free trade agreement with the US has been trashed. It is not good enough for Trump that Australia has a $17.9 billion trade deficit with the US. Trump always wants more. As Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says, the Trump tariffs are “not the act of a friend”. Every nation on Trump’s list feels the same way.

Sentiment among Australians has hardened rapidly against Trump. Resolve Strategic polling for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age has revealed 60 per cent of Australians say Trump’s election victory has been bad for Australia – up from 40 per cent last November. He is failing Down Under, too.

Today, Trump may be revelling in his command. More likely than not, he is post-peak at home. A reckoning is building.

Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre. He has served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former prime minister Julia Gillard.