La Niña, a climate pattern influencing global weather, ended its short and unusual life, transitioning to a neutral phase expected to last through spring, summer, and early fall. This neutral phase means less predictable weather patterns compared to La Niña or El Niño.
The absence of both La Niña and El Niño's influence makes predicting the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season more challenging. While La Niña typically leads to a more active hurricane season and El Niño to a less active one, neutral conditions present uncertainty. However, abnormally warm ocean temperatures and the continued impact of climate change suggest a potentially busy hurricane season.
Neutral conditions also create uncertainty in temperature and precipitation forecasts. Above-average temperatures are predicted across much of the US for spring and summer, except for some parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier. This is influenced by lingering ocean warmth and global warming trends, which are exacerbated by the ongoing drought in certain regions.
While La Niña's immediate influence is over, its effects may linger. The impact of past extremely strong El Niño events took months to subside, highlighting the complex interplay of climate patterns. Forecasters will continue to monitor the situation and update their predictions as more data becomes available.
Hurricanes Storms Climate change
See all topicsThe short-lived reign of La Niña has come to an end.
La Niña – a natural climate pattern that can influence weather worldwide – arrived at the start of this year but had a very short and odd life.
The atmosphere first started to take on a La Niña look last fall, but the cooler than average ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean that typically mark its arrival didn’t get with the program until the end of the year. Once they finally did, they only maintained La Niña levels for a few months.
Now, neither La Niña nor its counterpart El Niño are present and a so-called neutral phase has begun, according to a new National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration report. This neutral phase is forecast to last through the rest of spring, summer and into at least early fall.
Forecasters closely monitor La Niña and El Niño because they influence global weather in a way that’s largely consistent and predictable well in advance.
But La Niña’s demise doesn’t flip an on-off switch in the atmosphere. Its fingerprints will linger even if they could be limited by its duration and strength, according to Michelle L’Heureux, a climate scientist with the Climate Prediction Center. It’s “very difficult” to quantify exactly how long and to what extent La Niña’s ghost could stick around, L’Heureux said.
Months elapsed before the impact of an extremely strong El Niño dwindled. It played a part in record-warm global temperatures the last two years.
What could happen to the weather in the coming months without La Niña and El Niño is less clear-cut, but forecasters are already making predictions.
There will not be a clear influence from El Niño or La Niña to help guide forecasts on how this upcoming Atlantic hurricane season – which starts in June – will unfold. Neutral conditions basically have coin-flip odds to persist through the peak of hurricane season this year, which stretches from mid-August to mid-October.
La Niña typically leads to a much more active hurricane season while El Niño is more prone to suppressing hurricane activity – except for in 2023.
Forecasters need to factor in other influences without either heavy-hitter. Lingering abnormal ocean warmth and a planet warming due to fossil fuel pollution have at least one group of experts thinking this hurricane season will be a busy one.
Oceans are incredibly slow to cool, especially since about 90% of the world’s excess heat produced by burning planet-heating fossil fuels are stored in them. Global ocean temperatures were at record highs for large parts of 2023 and 2024.
El Niño transitioned to neutral conditions shortly before the start of last year’s incredibly active hurricane season. Extremely warm oceans churned out 18 named storms, including 11 hurricanes. Five of those hurricanes – including now retired Helene and Milton – slammed into the US.
Neutral conditions also offer a somewhat muddled influence on upcoming temperature and precipitation patterns in the US, especially during the summer, but there’s still a lot of time for forecasters to zero in.
The latest forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center show plenty of above-average warmth coming through the reminder of spring and into summer.
Above average temperatures are forecast nearly everywhere in the US aside from the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Northern Tier through June. Above average temperatures could spread across the entire Lower 48 for summer.
Temperatures continue to rise globally, and there are more frequent and extreme bouts of heat from planet-warming pollution. That, along with an expansive drought in parts of the US, are the reasons for the toasty forecast over the next several months.
Prolonged heat and dry weather tend to get stuck in a loop where each factor continuously makes the other worse – something that unfolded to the extreme last summer.
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