Two former colleagues, coated to ward off the spring chill, share a cup of tea outside a coffee shop in a leafy north London suburb.

It is hardly a clandestine meeting, but when the men are Tottenham Hotspur chairman Daniel Levy and his former manager, Mauricio Pochettino, they are likely to attract attention, no matter how innocent the catch-up or low-key the setting.

Inevitably a photograph snapped by a fan appears on social media, and just as quickly news stories appear with a familiar theme.

It is familiar because Pochettino has already been listed as favorite to become the next Tottenham manager.

Ange Postecoglou’s rollercoaster season, with more lows than highs, has led to constant speculation he will be replaced. It is weeks before his team respond to their run of just one win in six Premier League games by squeezing beyond Eintracht Frankfurt and into the Europa League semi-finals.

The British bookmakers have Pochettino, who managed Spurs between 2014 and 2019, as consistent favorite to return with odds as short as 7/2 (+350) — essentially meaning for every £2 ($2.65) wagered a punter would win £7 ($9.29).

In an interview with journalists in England, the Argentine even discussed how he wishes to return to his former club “one day.”

There is, of course, a significant real-world barrier to that happening by the timescale the betting firms suggest, and that is the 53-year-old’s job as manager of the U.S. men’s national team, with a contract until after next summer’s World Cup on home soil.

In addition, there is a significant buy-out or compensation clause any club would have to pay if they wanted to appoint Pochettino, who has overseen two wins and two losses in competitive fixtures, over the length of his two-year contract.

Pochettino watches his USMNT side succumb to Canada in the Concacaf Nations League third-place match. (Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images)

So why are so many U.K. bookies insistent he is the No. 1 candidate to replace Postecoglou?

In some respects, bookmakers odds are viewed as a barometer of how likely something is to happen. A certain match is likely to be won or lost by a certain team based on various distinct factors, such as previous games between them, recent form, the fixture’s location and more.

A horse is favorite to win a race because it has won the previous one, has a champion jockey and suits a certain track more than the others. That kind of thing.

But when it comes to football managers, the betting lists are not always what they seem.

“You have to remember the game that U.K. bookmakers are playing,” says Dean Ryan, a betting expert from industry website Gambling.com. “These markets are not necessarily built because they have any insight. It’s because it is a good news story and, if you can get the candidate that fans like into the mix, it will generate noise and publicity.”

The decision from Bet Victor to list Pochettino as 7/2 (+350), and later 5/2 (+250), came after his odds were previously as long as 40/1 (+4000).

He is not the only potential Tottenham candidate employed elsewhere. Bournemouth’s Andoni Iraola, whose present contract with the Premier League club runs until June 2026, and Brentford’s Thomas Frank, on a deal until 2027, are listed as possible replacements for Postecoglou.

“They’re what we call press-activated markets,” adds Ryan. “It’s who they think is possible or who will attract the interest of punters and make headlines.

“I’m a Spurs fan and we all realize it’s extremely unlikely that Poch would come back before the World Cup. Yes, he has met with Daniel Levy recently and so it’s possible he is hoping to get him back after 2026. But the Spurs manager market gets crazier every time they lose under Ange Postecoglou.

“They may have taken a few bets on these candidates but nowhere near what you’d think to suggest they’re favourites.”

To underline the point, former England manager Gareth Southgate is second favorite with some bookmakers to become the next France manager after Didier Deschamps.

The landscape can be unpredictable. Sven-Goran Eriksson infamously had talks with both Chelsea and Manchester United when he was England manager, even if nothing came of either approach. He was linked heavily with both jobs, but, a year after his England reign ended in 2006, he eventually managed Manchester City.

There have also been other occasions when the USMNT manager has featured in the odds to take a Premier League job. In August 2010, after leading his country to the last 16 of that summer’s World Cup, Bob Bradley was linked heavily with the vacant position at Aston Villa, despite his contract with the national team extending until the end of that year.

He admitted interest in the opportunity but eventually signed an extension with the U.S. Villa appointed ex-Liverpool boss Gerard Houllier instead.

Even the prospect of swapping the United States for north London is not new: Jurgen Klinsmann was speculated as a possible Tottenham coach, a return to the club he graced as a player, during his spell in charge of the USMNT, as well as being linked with Southampton during that period.

So the trade route may be well-established in the minds of bookmakers, but there are wider differences in gambling across the Atlantic. In the U.K., for example, it is legal to bet on anything from politics — who might be the next prime minister — to whether it will snow on Christmas Day. In the U.S. it is not possible to bet conventionally on politics and other event outcome ‘specials,’ although futures trading on prediction markets (something with a yes or no outcome) exists outside the regulated sportsbook markets.

“At least it is a genuine unknown at some point who will be the new prime minister,” says Ryan. “But with managers it’s strange because, if you think about it, there will be a stage when someone somewhere knows who the next manager of a club is going to be in advance of publication.

“The truth, though, is often it’s pure speculation. Erik ten Hag is listed as one of the (Tottenham) candidates with some bookies. There is no chance he will get the job but he’s an interesting name so he is included. They cover all bases. More common-sense and realistic names like Thomas Frank and Andoni Iraola are there because you can see them happening.

“The original lists can influence betting, too. You may have people seeing the photos of Poch with Levy and then going to their bookies to ask if they can put £100 on him. These sort of markets are fluid and can change all the time.”

Postecoglou celebrates in Frankfurt but remains a manager under pressure (Kirill Kudryavtsev/AFP via Getty Images)

Despite Spurs’ 1-0 win over Frankfurt on Thursday, which kept their hopes of silverware and Champions League qualification alive, by Friday, major bookies Paddy Power and Betfair still listed Pochettino as 5/2 to replace Postecoglou (even if he had drifted to 11/4 with Betvictor).

Postecoglou, who said he had “no idea” if he would still be in a job the day before the tie, adopted a more defiant tone following the victory.

“I don’t care, it doesn’t bother me, it doesn’t affect what I do,” he said. “For me, it’s always about the dressing room. Do the players believe? Do the staff believe? That’s much more important than what others may make of me.

“So, unfortunately for a lot of you, you’re going to have to put up with me for a little bit longer.”

But what is it like to see your name on these lists while still working for a club, or to see others viewed as favorites to take your job?

Tony Pulis was linked to the managerial role with Wales, where he was born, while with Stoke City, the club he established in the Premier League and took into the last 32 of the Europa League in 2011-12.

“All managers are different and respond in different ways to the spotlight,” the 67-year-old, who has also managed Crystal Palace and West Bromwich Albion during a lengthy coaching career, tells The Athletic. “Some enjoy it more than others and would see it as an endorsement.

“It can be unsettling, too. If you are doing well and then get promoted outside the club sphere, it can give the chairman the idea you’re pushing for another job. I didn’t pay any attention to it. I just got on with the job until the point it was done or not.”

There can, he says, be other factors in play that lead a manager to suddenly appear as the first-choice candidate for another job.

“When I started, often managers were getting jobs for what they had done and performances at previous clubs, but that has changed a bit,” Pulis says. “Agencies are massive in football now and the big ones can have a huge effect on clubs because of their associations with directors of football or recruitment teams.

“I don’t think it’s necessarily how successful a manager has been that determines when they make the next step, but whether they have got the right contacts behind the scenes.”

Pulis in his days as Stoke City manager (Carl Court/AFP via Getty Images)

Those firms charged with plotting the careers of managers can often busy themselves in the background, regardless of their client’s current status.

“Often there are people around a manager who will look to see him promoted that way and keep his name in bright lights,” Pulis says. “It may be strategic. They’re not positioning him for the now, but it’s for the future.”

Yet it is not always a case of bookmakers being mischievous based on guesswork.

“Sometimes the club owners actually put names out there themselves to see what sort of reaction they get,” adds Pulis. “That’s become more frequent. They can leak a name and see the response on social media in the fan base.

“I remember one person I thought was going to get a job, but his name got a negative response from supporters and the club moved on to someone else.”

The time-honored tradition of football manager odds may be a less than reliable gauge, but it appears here to stay.

(Top photo: Ian Kington/AFP/Getty Images)