Median house prices in Melbourne rose to $1,035,887 in the March quarter. The inner east saw the most significant increase, with a 6.7 percent surge to $1.78 million. Inner Melbourne also experienced a 3.3 percent rise, reaching $1,395,000. Conversely, median unit prices fell by 3.2 percent to $550,022.
Increased land tax on second homes and a lower share of new loans to investors contributed to the unit price decline. The rise in house prices is partly attributed to buyers' urgency to secure property, driven by the fear of further price increases. Limited housing stock also played a significant role, as evidenced by the struggles faced by upgraders Gemma Smeding and Marc Hudec.
Smeding and Hudec, who sought a new home for almost a year, highlight the market's competitiveness. They eventually enlisted a buyer's advocate to help them secure a property. Experts note that A-grade homes are in high demand due to anticipated interest rate cuts, leading buyers to act proactively. AMP's deputy chief economist, Diana Mousina, believes Melbourne's property market is sensitive to interest rate changes, particularly the February rate cut, which stimulated the market after a period of decline.
Despite the overall rise in house prices, the market remains dynamic and challenging, particularly for upgraders. The interplay of factors such as land tax, investor activity, limited housing stock, and interest rate expectations shapes the complex Melbourne property landscape.
The steepest rises were in more expensive areas that tend to lead property price cycles. The inner east’s median house price surged 6.7 per cent in the March quarter to $1.78 million, while inner Melbourne rose 3.3 per cent to $1,395,000.
Powell acknowledged that price rises can become an even greater driver for a buyer to make a purchase, but she stressed that Melbourne buyers were far from feeling a “fear of missing out”.
“I do think for buyers it sometimes becomes that push for people to make those decisions quicker,” she said.
By contrast, Melbourne’s median unit price fell 3.2 per cent over the three months to March to $550,022.
Powell linked the price dip to an increase in land tax on second homes in Victoria at the start of last year, which has prompted some investors to sell, and a smaller than average share of new loans to go to investors.
“First home buyers are taking their place but when you do that comparison from first home buyers to investors, first home buyers don’t necessarily have as deep pockets as investors,” she said.
Upgraders Gemma Smeding, 38, and Marc Hudec, 42, have been feeling the pressure of the turning market.
They were looking for a house for almost a year and missed out at several auctions. It was common for 20 to 30 people to be looking at properties they were considering.
They own an apartment in Preston and had hoped to stay in the area but the type of homes that were selling for $1 million to $1.2 million six months ago now fetch $1.4 million to $1.5 million, said Smeding, who works for an insurance company.
“The prices just shot up because there’s a lot less stock on the market,” she said.
“It was just dragging on, getting harder, really deflating.
“We’re both around 40 and even still it’s been really difficult for us, and we’ve had help, and we’ve got money saved, and we’ve got reasonable preapproval,” she added.
“We’ve both got good jobs, we’ve got good income, you’d think you’d tick all the boxes for this to be easier.”
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Marc, who works for a not for profit, said: “Even in a market that’s supposed to be a buyers’ market, really isn’t.”
The couple’s luck changed when they enlisted a buyers’ advocate to help, and they recently bought a two-bedroom Federation house with an extra studio in Coburg.
Their buyers’ agent, Dion Marsden of Marsden Buyers Agents, said A-grade homes were highly sought after and there were few available.
“What we’re seeing is buyers just trying to get ahead of potential interest rate cuts,” he said. “Buyers are trying to get the good stuff now ahead of what they’re foreseeing as a competitive market come later this year.”
He had many clients disappointed at February’s interest-rate cut because they know rate cuts increase market confidence – including among sellers who think they can ask for slightly higher prices.
AMP deputy chief economist Diana Mousina thought Melbourne’s property market was sensitive to the February rate cut, ticking up after having been in a decline.
“It really looks like Melbourne was quite rate sensitive to the cut in February,” she said.
“It looks like good value relative to the other capital cities – Melbourne is the second-largest capital city and on a relative basis it looks relatively cheap.”
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