Beneath the surface of global politics, a new race is underway — one fueled not by oil or land but by the metals and minerals that power our phones, vehicles, and defense systems. In his second term, President Trump has made securing these critical resources a central pillar of United States foreign policy, reshaping alliances and strategic priorities around access and control.

From the coal, gas and iron-rich Ukraine to the cobalt fields of Africa, the competition for control is heating up — and what happens next could redefine the balance of power for decades to come.

“Mineral diplomacy could secure America’s future if done right,” retired United States diplomat and expert in energy policy and critical minerals Martin Healy tells the New York Sun. 

Ukraine 

After months of negotiations, the United States and Ukraine this week signed a landmark deal establishing the joint Reconstruction Investment Fund to facilitate Ukraine’s post-war rebuilding and economic recovery. Under the deal, Ukraine will contribute 50 percent of future revenues from newly developed natural resources — such as minerals, oil, and gas — into the fund, while retaining full ownership and control over these assets. The United States will provide financial support and investment expertise, with both nations sharing equal management and voting rights within the fund.

“The U.S-Ukraine minerals deal can make a change in President Trump’s vision about the Ukrainian-Russian war,” geopolitical analyst Dean Shmuel Elmas tells the Sun. 

“If Mr. Trump knew that this war would affect his mineral imports, he would be more aggressive toward his colleague, President Vladimir Putin,” he added. “This deal will bolster U.S. supply chains, which I believe won’t depend on Ukraine only.”

The agreement does not require Ukraine to fully repay previous United States military aid, addressing earlier demands for total compensation. Instead, it focuses on long-term collaboration to promote Ukraine’s stability, security, and prosperity. Importantly, it also aims to strengthen supply chains for key tech and defense industries while injecting much-needed investment into Ukraine’s war-battered economy.

While hailed as a strategic win for both sides, the deal comes with complications. 

A significant portion of Ukraine’s mineral wealth is under Russian occupation, and mining operations face major hurdles — from damaged infrastructure to widespread landmines. Experts caution that any large-scale extraction — particularly under the new United States deal — will be stalled unless Ukraine first tackles the widespread threat of unexploded ordnance across its mining zones.

Critics also warn that the pact, paired with Trump’s controversial peace proposal involving territorial concessions, could further blur the line between economic support and geopolitical pressure. Still, for Kyiv, the deal offers a lifeline — and a stake in the minerals game shaping global power.

The Congo 

Ukraine is hardly the only piece of the “mineral diplomacy” strategy pursued by the administration. 

As the Democratic Republic of the Congo battles a deepening crisis in its mineral-rich east, it’s turning to unconventional allies to protect and profit from its vast natural wealth. Erik Prince, the controversial American security contractor and vocal Trump ally, has quietly struck a deal with the Congolese government to help secure and tax the country’s critical mineral resources — an industry long plagued by corruption and smuggling. 

The pact, reached before Rwanda-backed M23 rebels escalated their offensive in January, was initially intended to position Prince’s contractors in Goma. With the city now under rebel control, however, the plan is on ice, leaving Kinshasa scrambling to salvage its ambitions for tighter control over its prized mineral territories.

Behind the scenes, sources tell the Sun that the United States is also exploring a broader minerals-for-security partnership with Congo — one that would signal a major shift in how Washington engages with the region. Frustrated by years of international inaction as rebel forces strip its eastern provinces of wealth, Kinshasa appears ready to leverage what it has: the raw materials the modern world can’t live without. 

A source connected to the administration points out that the foundation for a Congo deal was established during the first Trump term when then-President Joseph Kabila met with then-United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley to “expand diplomatic relations.”

“Growth in minerals, metals, and energy is a matter of U.S. national security,” the insider pointed out. 

The stakes are considerable. Congo holds some of the world’s richest deposits of cobalt and lithium — key ingredients in batteries that power everything from smartphones to electric vehicles. Much of that wealth flows through illicit channels or to foreign interests, particularly China. 

Managing director of strategic advocacy firm Nestpoint Associates, John Thomas tells the Sun that the “U.S.-led partnership to review DRC mining contracts is a critical move to challenge China’s dominance over cobalt and copper.”

“We are actually quite involved in these kinds of deals in Africa, and the answer is this is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reset relations with African nations and break China’s grip on some of these countries,” he says. 

“Part of the key to all of these deals will not just be cutting a deal but ensuring American firms are involved in structuring, financing and operating the mines. This ensures stability and longevity of the partnerships.”

Others are more skeptical. 

“Can reviewing mining contracts reshape Western influence? I doubt it. China controls over 70 percent of DRC’s cobalt and copper production, and corruption plus M23 rebel conflicts make any progress moving the DRC away from China unlikely in the short term,” Mr. Healy asserted. 

Canada, Greenland

The United States’ strategic interest in mineral-rich regions like Canada and Greenland has also intensified as part of its broader mineral diplomacy efforts. Both countries possess significant reserves of critical minerals essential for modern technologies and defense applications.

Canada’s vast mineral wealth — valued at approximately $1.7 trillion in 2023 — has positioned it as a global leader in critical resources essential for modern technologies, including lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements. This abundance has drawn international attention, notably from Mr. Trump, who has made quips about Canada becoming the 51st state — a notion potentially driven by a desire to secure these valuable resources.

Greenland, with its vast deposits of rare earth elements and other critical minerals, has attracted the White House’s attention as well. A recent visit to Greenland by Vice President Vance and a delegation underscores the growing interest in establishing partnerships to develop these resources responsibly. While past discussions about acquiring Greenland have been met with skepticism, the current focus is on fostering economic collaboration that benefits all parties involved.

Supply Chain Woes

There is, however, more to “mineral diplomacy” than money. 

Washington’s renewed push for minerals comes amid growing concern over its deep dependency on adversary Beijing for critical raw materials. China dominates the global supply chain for rare earth elements — accounting for roughly 90 percent of production—and the United States imports nearly three-quarters of its rare earth needs from Beijing. 

These minerals are vital to modern life, powering everything from smartphones and electric vehicles to missiles and advanced radar systems. Any disruption in supply could wreak havoc on key American industries and national security infrastructure.

“China’s 80 percent grip on global mineral processing is a security threat, but the U.S. can counter it with private sector innovation and sanctions to disrupt Beijing’s predatory contracts,” Mr. Thomas said. 

In response to escalating tensions, Mr. Trump signed an executive order in March to “boost American mineral production, streamline permitting, and enhance national security.” The order called on federal agencies to prioritize mining on public lands, challenge restrictive court rulings, and even use military bases for processing. 

Mr. Thomas emphasized that they are seeing “real-time results” after the Executive Order. 

“Short-term, expect faster permits and new mines; long-term, reduced foreign reliance bolsters our economy and security,” he said. 

“We are seeing increasing deal flow for American companies to open refining facilities here in places like Texas because even if the U.S. obtains rare earth from African countries, they have to ensure it can be refined in a place that isn’t controlled by China. It is critical that the United States break its reliance on China for rare earth as well as processing.”

Last week, Mr. Trump issued another executive action to fast-track the United States’ access to alternative mineral sources, including the ocean floor. This move, while heavily condemned by environmental groups and Democratic lawmakers, follows a series of aggressive export controls from China, which in recent months has tightened restrictions on gallium, germanium, and six heavy rare earth elements, including terbium and dysprosium. 

The White House has labeled China’s actions a form of “economic coercion,” underscoring the urgency to secure independent and diversified mineral supply chains through strategic partnerships with countries like Ukraine, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and beyond. 

“Mineral diplomacy secures critical resources for U.S. technology and defense; frankly, anything that turns on requires rare earth. America is dangerously vulnerable to China’s political whims as a result of our lack of rare earth production and refining capacity,” Mr. Thomas said. 

“This isn’t a wish list item; it is a must-have. It strengthens America’s future if paired with domestic production to ensure supply chain sovereignty.”

Other observers, however, warn that Beijing’s bid to outdo it in the mineral mining sector has several drawbacks. 

“Without tackling corruption and conflict, diplomacy fails,” Mr. Healy surmised. “Trust and political will are critical, or else China will prevail.”

Washington-based Eurasia expert Igor Danchenko also stressed that there are other critical factors to consider. 

“The dilemma is while the likes of the DRC are offering its reserves to the U.S., and a few others may follow suit, in a security arrangement, will the U.S. be willing to commit troops or substantial military aid? If so, the risk is that the U.S. will drag itself into wars that would be hard to sell to the general public at home,” he added.