An hour after polls closed, at the Liberal-National Party’s election night event at the W hotel in Brisbane’s CBD, the vibes were funereal. 

Less than a hundred people had shown up to the oversized ballroom by that point, and party faithful spoke in hushed tones. Standing atop raised platforms along the walls, half a dozen TV reporters were crossing live. No music was playing and people’s footsteps were muffled on the carpeted floor, a truly garish black and white snakeskin pattern.

“COALITION CAN’T WIN MAJORITY GOVERNMENT” screamed a strapline on the Sky News Australia broadcast beamed onto one of the walls. 

On a couch in a corner, reporters who earlier in the day had followed Dutton through battleground seats in Victoria before arriving on his home turf were staring in disbelief at their screens as the results from Dickson began trickling in.

“I think Dutton might lose his seat,” one of them was heard saying, bending over to show their phone to a colleague. 

Liberal Party supporters check incoming election results at the W Hotel in Brisbane (Image: Private Media/Anton Nilsson)

The Dickson electorate, sprawling across Brisbane’s north-western suburbs, was created in 1993 and won by Labor, before flip-flopping to the Liberals, and then back to Labor. Dutton won it in 2001 and held it for 24 years, rising quickly to the frontbench as a minister under John Howard. Since then, it’s been nothing but cabinet and shadow cabinet jobs.

As an opposition leader on the campaign trail, Dutton has for the past six weeks maintained that his goal was majority government. He dismissed devastating poll predictions in the past few days as inaccurate, saying: “There’s a lot of quiet Australians … there’s no doubt in my mind that we can win this election.” 

How soon did Dutton realise that was a fantasy? When did he realise not only that his chances of winning government were dwindling, but that his colleagues who had begun discussing how to roll him as leader need not have bothered? (After all, there’s no point in dismissing a parliamentary party leader who doesn’t even have a seat in Parliament.)

Image: Private Media/Anton Nilsson

Perhaps he was beginning to face reality when he scheduled a campaign stop in Dickson on Thursday. Asked by a reporter whether he was worried about losing the seat, Dutton denied there was any political motivation behind his homecoming. 

“I’m here today for the Red Shield Appeal Breakfast, so I do it every year and I clear whatever’s in my diary to do it. I’ve been supporting the Red Shield Appeal for almost 25 years in my seat, and we’ve raised hundreds of thousands of dollars and it was set today,” Dutton said. 

At a polling booth in Bray Park in Dickson on Saturday afternoon, Dutton’s image was crowded out by campaign corflutes picturing Labor’s three-time candidate Ali France. A few lonely Dutton posters were scattered in the shadow of a skip bin, while volunteers for France and independent challenger Ellie Smith had snatched all the good spots along the line into the polling station. 

“I’m up against the opposition leader — it’s a really tough seat to be in, but as I do with most things that I do, I am putting everything into it,” France told reporters at a campaign stop in Strathpine earlier in the campaign. “I’m hopeful here. We’re really hopeful here. I think we have a chance here, but I am just going to spend the next three weeks just talking to as many people as I can about Labor’s positive plan for the future.”

Smith, too, thought she had a chance of winning the seat. 

“It’ll be amazing if we do — we’ve run such an amazing campaign with our volunteers who have done some incredible work over the last few weeks … we’ve done everything we can, and we’ll just see how it evolves,” Smith told Crikey as polls were closing. 

Outside a Dickson polling booth (Image: Private Media/Anton Nilsson)

“With such a wide ticket, it’s always going to come down to preferences. It will be a question of flows and preferences from all the minor parties.” 

It remains to be seen exactly how those preferences flowed, but it’s likely that Smith’s and the Greens’ candidate Vinnie Batten’s votes helped push France over the line. 

Bray Park had more Labor voters than Liberal voters last time around, and France had been there earlier in the day to cast her own ballot. The voters that Crikey spoke to were nearly unanimous in their wish for change. 

“Peter Dutton is a belligerent prick, excuse my language, and I wouldn’t vote for him in a fit — and I don’t like the Labor Party either,” said Smith voter Norman Gordes, 79. 

His wife Marion, 78, said they both used to vote Greens before Smith put her hat in the ring. 

“This is considered a fairly low socio-economic area, and the average rent is $700. Labor just doesn’t do anything,” she said. (Data from realestate.com.au shows the median rent in Bray Park is closer to $600 per week.)

One voter said he ticked One Nation at number one and placed the rest of his preferences “anywhere but the major parties”, because those parties “are just looking at what they can do to get elected another term”. 

By 9pm, the 595 square metre event space at the W, known as the “great room”, had filled up considerably, but at that point, the major television networks had already called the election for Labor. Liberals in the room described their feelings as ones of disbelief, and more than one said they hadn’t yet had time to process what had happened. 

A woman who had been volunteering at a polling booth in Dickson arrived at the party wearing a blue and gold Wonder Woman-esque outfit with the words “I’m backing Peter” on the front. 

It appeared that Dutton’s loss of Dickson came as a surprise to her. 

“Our booth was quiet, but we actually had a lot of people taking blue [how to vote cards] only,” said Sharyn Merrin, 66.

Image: Private Media/Anton Nilsson

At one point, former Liberal prime minister Tony Abbott appeared briefly in the lobby outside where the event was taking place. He was quickly mobbed by reporters and offered a few brief remarks that could not be heard, before appearing to change his mind about coming in and walking back towards the elevators, flanked by security.

Then, at 9.30pm, Dutton finally made his appearance, walking with his wife and three kids through the camera flashes to the stage. 

“Tonight is not the night we wanted for the Liberal Party or for our Coalition, or indeed for our country,” began his concession speech. “We didn’t do well enough during this campaign, that much is obvious tonight, and I accept full responsibility for that.”

“I also had the pleasure of speaking with Ali France, and Ali and I have been combatants for a number of elections now, but she was successful in Dickson and she will do a good job as a local member.” 

Cutting his remarks short at seven minutes, Dutton hugged each of his family members before following them off stage. The mood in the room had shifted somewhat, perhaps to something akin to relief that it was over. Three years of a Liberal Party in the wilderness had begun – rudderless, leaderless (for now), and facing a long process of figuring out exactly what went so wrong. 

By midnight, the ballroom had emptied out, most of the reporters had left the building, and hotel staff were clearing empty bottles and wiping down tables. 

The party members who wanted to keep drinking to their loss had moved to an adjacent, much more intimate room. Dutton was there too, looking a lot happier than he did earlier on stage. And someone had finally put on some music. Queen’s “Bohemian Rhapsody” was blaring, and people could be heard singing along: “Carry on, carry on as if nothing really matters.” 

What will the Liberal Party do now?

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