The S&P 500 index is on the verge of a historically unique event. After a significant 11.2% drop in April (triggered by President Trump's tariff announcements), it has rebounded over 10%. This is unprecedented since the implementation of the five-day trading week in late 1952; the index has never fully recovered from such a drop to end the month higher.
Bespoke Investment Group's data reveals 14 instances where the S&P 500 fell at least 10% intra-month before rallying over 5%. However, these past rebounds were often followed by further volatility.
The current market turmoil stems from the announcement (and subsequent suspension) of significant import tariffs. While some losses have been recouped, the S&P 500 remains 10% below its peak. Wells Fargo Investment Strategy Analyst, Michael Taylor, highlights the continuing tariff uncertainty as a likely driver of near-term market volatility.
The article cautions against assuming the market rebound signifies the end of volatility. While a remarkable recovery is underway, historical precedent suggests further market fluctuations are possible.
April's roller coaster ride for stocks is about to be an unprecedented one. President Donald Trump's shocking tariff announcement knocked the S & P 500 down 11.2% for the month at its closing low on April 8. The broad equity benchmark has since rallied back more than 10% from that low, last trading 1.5% lower for the month. In the S & P 500's history since the five-day trading week began in late 1952, the index has never fully reversed a 10%-plus intra-month drop on a closing basis to finish the month higher, according to Bespoke Investment Group. .SPX 1M mountain S & P 500 There have been 14 prior months that have seen the S & P 500 drop at least 10% at its lows and then rally back more than 5% from those lows through month-end, according to Bespoke. However, after big monthly turnarounds in the past, there was typically more volatility ahead. So this current rebound in stocks doesn't necessarily mean investors are out of the woods. The current market turmoil was triggered by Trump's rollout, and subsequent suspension, of the highest tariffs on imports in generations. Earlier this month, the S & P 500 briefly tumbled into a bear market — down more than 20% from its February record high — before recouping some of the losses. Now the benchmark is 10% off its peak. "Even with a 90-day pause, we believe tariff uncertainty is likely to continue fueling market volatility in the near term," Wells Fargo Investment Strategy Analyst Michael Taylor said in a note to clients.
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