The 2025 Australian federal election yielded a surprising outcome, with the Labor party securing an increased majority, exceeding initial predictions of a minority government. This success was partly attributed to the perceived failures of the Coalition.
The lower house crossbench's influence diminished, with most sitting independents retaining their seats, including the "teal" independents. Notable wins for independents include Dai Le in Fowler and Andrew Gee in Calare. New independent representatives such as Nicolette Boele in Bradfield and potentially Jessie Price in Bean add to the crossbench representation. Community independents in various seats may yet win with preferential voting.
The Greens faced significant setbacks, losing key seats like Griffith and Brisbane. Their future in seats like Ryan, Melbourne, Wills and Richmond remains uncertain.
Despite the shifts in the lower house, the Greens now hold the balance of power in the Senate. Further analysis is expected on the reasons behind Labor's strong performance.
Well, after several months of minority looking likely, Labor has been returned with an increased majority, in part because â as this column suggested on Friday â the Coalition truly shat the bed.
It quickly became apparent the lower house crossbench wouldnât be holding the balance of power in the 48th Parliament â it may have even shrunk. But there were still interesting results for the bench itself, with the indies having a good night, and the Greens a terrible one.
Almost every current independent held on, including all six of the 2022 âtealsâ (Goldstein is still close, but itâs looking good for Zoe Daniel). Dai Le clung on in Fowler, while Nat-turned-independent Andrew Gee triumphed over both the National Party and the community independent in Calare. Lib defectors Russell Broadbent and Ian Goodenough lost, as expected, though their independence was only ever about not winning Liberal preselection.
The independents will be joined by new faces in Nicolette Boele in Bradfield (a stereotypical teal) and potentially Jessie Price in Bean, where the people of Canberra have sent Labor a message â whether or not it chooses to hear it. Community indies in Flinders, Monash, McPherson and Fremantle could still prevail, with a bit of luck and some very generous preference flows.
For the Greens, however, things are looking dire. Laborâs resurgence has seen the party lose Griffith and Brisbane, with Ryan on the rocks. Even Adam Bandtâs seat of Melbourne has looked shaky, while the party looks unlikely to pick up any new seats (though keep an eye on Wills and Richmond).
Much will be said in the coming weeks about why Labor did so very well, but for those hoping for a progressive balance of power⌠look to the Senate, where the Greens now hold the entire balance.
Margins with â~â are newly based on redistributions, as estimated by the Tally Room.
Are there any particular seats you hope get pinched from their incumbent?
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