‘Mr. Trump’s policies have fuelled a patriotic bout in Canada’  | Photo Credit: Reuters

Canadian politics may be at an unprecedented inflection point, both internally and externally, with two narrowly divided political parties domestically (the Liberal Party and the Conservative Party of Canada) and the Donald Trump presidency in the United States straining its stability amid external sovereignty claims. Within a matter of months, the domestic political landscape in Canada has changed considerably. Justin Trudeau, the former Prime Minister and from the ruling Liberal Party, lost support within his party and had to resign, paving the way for the party’s new leader, Mark Carney.

Mr. Carney, who is considered a political rookie but also a reputable economist, realised that his party did not have the numbers in Canada’s Parliament. As he stared at a no-confidence vote, which his Liberal party was certain to lose, he was compelled to call snap elections on April 28. It is probably the most opportune moment for the Liberal Party in the recent past for a nation-wide election, with soaring domestic support enabling it to close a double digit poll gap with the Conservative Party.

Some gain for the Liberal Party

Behind the political resurgence of the Liberal Party has been a revanchist Trump presidency which has stridently argued for the geographical, political and economic unification of Canada with the U.S. as America’s 51st State — a demand which has been vehemently rebuffed by the Canadian government and Canadians alike. Canadian sentiments have been further rattled by U.S. trade policies.

On February 1 this year, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada, Mexico and China. Mr. Trump backed off from raising additional tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium to 50% in early March after Canada threatened retaliation by slapping a 25% tax on electricity supply from Ontario to the U.S. The Liberal Party used the opportunity to drumbeat a national unity calling for the unification of Canadians across political divides.

The other factor responsible for the party’s resurgence in such a short time is the rising opposition to and even hatred for Mr. Trump and America in Canada. Mr. Trump’s policies have fuelled a patriotic bout in Canada with a growing demand to boycott things that are American and to buy Canadian.

The Canadian reaction to American tariff coercion has been driven by a nationalistic impulse which was not witnessed in Ottawa in the past, especially against the U.S. In fact, the decision by most Canadians to avoid travel to the U.S. has caused Canadian airlines to stop service to some American cities.

On the other side of the fence

The political fortunes of the leader of the Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre, have altered to his detriment. The party has slipped to a tie in polls with the Liberal Party, thus squandering his earlier lead. Many Canadians now see a shadow of Mr. Trump in Mr. Poilievre who has espoused deregulation, tax cuts and talks about doing away with liberal policies of the Trudeau government on environment, energy, culture and gender. Mr. Poilievre has borrowed Mr. Trump’s language in his war against the liberal elite of Canada, culture wars, gender, cryptocurrency and climate action among other issues.

As Mr. Carney and Mr. Poilievre hit the campaign trail, it will be exacting for both candidates. Mr. Carney remains an unelected Prime Minister who will have to take up centrist positions on policy issues to avoid Mr. Trudeau’s extremes, especially as he had declined to join Mr. Trudeau’s cabinet. Mr. Carney enjoys certain advantages of being an unorthodox figure as well as an international financier in times of economic upheaval and tensions with the U.S., which is Canada’s most important trading partner.

Mr. Poilievre may benefit from ‘liberal fatigue’ within a substantial part of the Canadian polity because of the Liberal Party’s long innings. Most of all, Mr. Poilievre’s moment may have coincided with the ascendance of conservative politics and the ‘rise of the right’ across the world. Amidst all these, Mr. Poilievre will bank on his fiery oratory skills while avoiding the Trumpian tropes.

There are four main contenders in the elections — Mr. Carney, Mr. Poilievre, Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet and New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh. While Mr. Blanchet may have widened his political mandate, Bloc Québécois remains essentially provincial. Mr. Singh has struggled to sustain his support in recent years, which leaves only two main contenders in the race.

Outlook for Canada’s ties

Whoever wins the next election will have to face the test of steering Canada amid domestic and foreign policy constraints. In the short term, while the most daunting challenges will be the repercussions of a hard-line economic and political posture from Washington, it is Mr. Trudeau’s legacy that could continue to cast dark shadows on Ottawa’s relations abroad, especially in Asia, under the next leader. A cyclical policy of economic reprisals with its most important neighbour is likely to cause Canada’s economic reorientation to Asia and Europe.

In Asia however, Mr. Trudeau’s acute political positions have left Canada in the lurch with its relations with two large Asian nations, India and China, in disarray. Additionally, Ottawa’s strategic outlook in the form of its Indo-Pacific policy remains all but words.

Both Mr. Carney and Mr. Poilievre have indicated that they will seek better relations with India. However the political support that their respective party receives from Mr. Singh’s party which lends open support to the Khalistani groups within and outside Canada will be the greatest outlier in shaping ties with New Delhi. Despite an anticipated India-Canada reset, Delhi must be ready for any outcome.

Harsh V. Pant is Vice-President, Observer Research Foundation (ORF), New Delhi. Vivek Mishra is Fellow, Americas, Observer Research Foundation