“He who enters a conclave as pope emerges as a cardinal” goes the saying, so picking the likely winner of the papal election following the death of Pope Francis is fraught with difficulty.
In the upcoming conclave, the following are considered papal candidates or “papabile” – translated from the Italian “pope-able”:
From the tiny island of Gozo off Malta, Cardinal Grech (68), the former Bishop of Gozo, has displayed a similar mindset to Francis in his addresses to Synods of Bishops in Rome. In a December 2018 interview, he said: “‘Black’ and ‘white’ still exist; but the grey area in-between has grown. It is in the grey areas that we must search. That’s why I said that I am wary of those priests, or Christians, who feel they already know all the answers. No one can make that claim. We all have to continue searching.”
He has been central, as secretary general of the Synod of Bishops, to the ongoing synodal process initiated by Pope Francis. He is also familiar with the Vatican, having served on the Roman Rota, and he had been a bishop in Malta for more than 18 years. Coming from a small country is an advantage too, not least where geopolitics is concerned. Francis made him a cardinal in 2020.
Cardinal Tagle (66) is the former archbishop of Manila in Asia’s most populous Catholic country and from a continent where Catholicism is growing fast. He has had extensive experience at the Vatican as prefect of its Congregation for the Evangelisation of Peoples. His mother was Chinese and he studied for seven years in the US and is close to the thinking of Pope Francis on most matters.
Ordained in 1982, he became a bishop in 2001 and went on to serve as the Archbishop of Manila from 2011 to 2020. He was appointed Cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI in 2012, the seventh Filipino to be named a cardinal.
Cardinal Tagle has also been to Ireland twice. In 2012 he spoke at the 50th International Eucharistic Congress, in Dublin, and again at the World Meeting of Families in 2018 where “Chito”, as he is called, proved something of a charmer. He was also believed to be in the running at the 2013 conclave but was considered too young then.
Cardinal Zuppi (69), Archbishop of Bologna and president of the Italian Bishops’ Conference, might have a strong chance if the conclave thinks it is time for another Italian pope following a Polish pontiff, a German one and an Argentinian pope
A man very much in the Francis mould, he said last year that faith in God was not always necessary, as there are notable examples of altruism even among those who lack it. Loving one’s neighbour was what mattered, he said.
In 2023 Pope Francis appointed him to lead the Vatican diplomatic mission to ease tensions in the Ukraine conflict and promote gestures of humanity which might lay foundations for a just peace. He visited Kyiv, Moscow, Washington and Beijing.
Another Italian contender is Cardinal Parolin (70), from Schiavon in northern Italy, who has been the Vatican secretary of state since October 2013, almost for the entirety of Francis’s papacy. Cardinal Parolin met US vice-president JD Vance at the Vatican last Saturday.
Irish eyes will be on Cardinal Farrell (77), originally from Drimnagh, Dublin, and present Camerlengo at the Vatican overseeing its affairs until a new pope is elected. He entered the Congregation of the Legionaries of Christ in 1966 and was ordained to the priesthood in 1978.
He served as chaplain of the Legion of Christ’s apostolic movement Regnum Christi at the University of Monterrey in Mexico and later denied having prior knowledge of sexual abuse by Legion of Christ’s founder Marcial Maciel.
[ Who will be the next pope after Francis and how does the process work? ]
He left the Legionaries and, in 1984, became a priest in the Archdiocese of Washington, becoming auxiliary bishop and chief adviser to the late Cardinal Theodore McCarrick, who was later stripped of his ministry following multiple allegations of child sex abuse. Cardinal Farrell denied all knowledge of McCarrick’s abuses.
Most of his clerical life has been spent in the US, where he was Bishop of Dallas. In 2016 Pope Francis appointed him as prefect of the Vatican’s Dicastery for the Laity, the Family and Life. It was in that role he visited Ireland with Francis in 2018. He was appointed Camerlengo by Francis the following year, putting him in a pivotal role in the run-up to this conclave.
The leading African papabile is Cardinal Turkson (75) from Ghana. The first cardinal from the African country, he has extensive Vatican experience and a reputation for being strong on interreligious dialogue, no doubt helped by his own background. His mother was Methodist, while a paternal uncle was Muslim. But his age and the conservative nature of the African church may not help him.
It is believed unlikely an African pope will emerge from this conclave. This is due mainly to the refusal of the Catholic bishops of Africa and Madagascar in a 2024 statement in response to Pope Francis’s declaration in 2023 allowing priests to offer blessings to same-sex couples. The African bishops, instead, asserted that such unions were “contrary to the will of God”.
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