If these peace terms are as reported, they are a historic betrayal. Nothing in American history would come near to it. It would side the US squarely and definitively with dictatorship. It would mark the collapse of Western values across the Atlantic.

You can write about this stuff over and over again. You can print page after page and commit sentence after sentence, but the cold reality of the words still strikes you like a slap to the face. The brutal, remorseless logic of what is happening is almost impossible to bear. And yet, if we have any chance of getting through this period with our principles intact, it will be by speaking honestly and precisely about what is taking place.

An Axios news agency report – rejected by the Kremlin – says that Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg will hand a full US-approved peace proposal to Ukrainian officials during a meeting in London on Wednesday. If that deal is as reported, it is a near-complete capitulation to Russian demands.

The core concession it makes to Russia is to grant formal US recognition of the Crimea, which Vladimir Putin invaded in 2014. People occasionally like to adopt a mock-realist tone and insist that Russia was always going to end up with Crimea. It was occupied before the current hostilities, so granting it to Russia would recognise what’s been an on-the-ground reality for a decade.

In reality, this would not be a reversion to the status quo; it would be the creation of a new global paradigm. It grants an aggressive imperialist state territory precisely on the basis of its aggressive imperialist activity. It would be the first time since the end of the Second World War that a country in Europe has secured territory in this way. It is a return – a vigorous, rapid return – to the world of the early 20th century, to an international order defined by might alone.

Ukraine has rejected this proposal. Its fight for Crimea is not just about its territory but about the territory of every state in Europe and the safety of every citizen in Europe. If Crimea is handed to Russia, the message is clear: you can invade, you can murder, you can terrorise, and you can ethnically cleanse. And then, when you’re done, the international community will recognise your achievement. It is an invitation to tyrants everywhere to do as they please.

In addition to this, the US would offer de facto recognition of territory under Russian occupation since 2022: Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. According to the Financial Times, Putin has jumped on this offer and offered to freeze the invasion along the current front lines.

Of course, he has. He’s not getting everything he wants, but he’s getting everything he needs.

Donald Trump’s next concessions to Russia are to remove all US sanctions on the country and open up unprecedented degrees of US-Russian cooperation. This is the removal of the chief Russian vulnerability.

Russia is isolated from the international community at precisely the time that it is turning into a war economy. It spent approximately £115.9bn on defence in 2024 – or 6.7 per cent of GDP.

There is a lively debate about how badly pummelled it is. Some believe it can survive its economic problems fine. Others believe it is reaching a crisis point, but it is unclear when it will hit – perhaps in five years, three, or one. Others still think it is on the brink of financial disaster. The middle view is the most popular but is also the vaguest.

We do not know how long the combination of sanctions and massive military spending will take to break Russia. But we know one thing: it is our chief advantage against Putin as the war slowly grinds away on the battlefield. It offers a deliverable plan for smashing the imperialist state. Trump is intent not just on giving Putin what he wants but on removing all viable Western opposition.

If enacted, US and Chinese financial support would flood into Russia, rebuilding its economy and replenishing its military. Frozen Russian assets would be returned, removing potential funding schemes to help Ukraine repair. So, of course, Putin is willing to freeze along the current front line. He gets the chance to build back and can restart the invasion later, with the sure knowledge that a Trumpified US will recognise whichever territorial gains he secures in the second wave.

What is there for Ukraine? Nothing. Trump says it cannot join Nato – a once-galling commitment that now seems basically irrelevant given that Trump’s hatred for America’s Western allies has effectively made Nato redundant anyway. The deal says – and for some reason, this might be its most irritating part – that the US will not prevent Ukraine from joining the EU. This is not in America’s gift. It is up to Ukraine and the EU whether it attains membership. The fact this is even written is a sign that Trump shares precisely the imperialist attributes of the Russian President.

There is a supposed “security guarantee”, but no details about how it would work or any mention of US involvement. It states that Europeans will do some peacekeeping – a recognition of Keir Starmer’s coalition of the willing, which the Trump administration has spent so much time disparaging.

Ukraine cannot accept this deal. To do so would precipitate its eradication as a sovereign state and initiate the complete abolition of the post-war international order in Europe. But whether it declines or not, we face the same basic outcome. It is the outcome which has been presented to us, over and over again, since Trump came to power. America is an ally of Russia. It is an enemy of liberal democracy. It will not help Ukraine.

Only Europe can now stand up to tyranny. Only Europe can guard the wall of civilisation against barbarism. We are going to have to give everything to equip Ukraine in that fight: money, technology, operational assistance. It will be painful. It will be thankless. It will come with no guarantees whatsoever about ultimate victory. But there are no other options. Either Europe stands for freedom, or it signs its own death warrant.