This might be the single stupidest thing any of us will ever see. It is stupid in every way: presentationally, intellectually, politically, methodologically, morally and of course economically. The word stupid doesn’t really suffice for the full level of idiocy we’ve now reached. It’s as if we’ve attained a new state of human mindlessness, a kind of species milestone.

This is what empires look like when they fall: lost to mania, paranoia, jealousy and spasms of baseless rage. The sight of Donald Trump emerging to give his speech on tariffs was pitiful in the extreme. He walked haltingly past a small crowd of sycophants, with American flags draped between White House pillars in a way that resembled a tacky rundown state funfair more than it did a presidential address.

“My fellow Americans, this is liberation day,” he said, as if he was finding it increasingly difficult to articulate individual words. “April 2, 2025 will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn.” He then seemed to go into cognitive decline before our very eyes, getting increasingly lost in his violent fantasies. “For decades our country has been looted, pillaged, raped, and plundered by nations near and far, both friends and foe alike.” 

America is a place of immeasurable wealth. It is quite literally the richest and most fortunate country that has ever existed. And yet its leader acts like such a pitiful cry-baby on the world stage, constantly talking about how mean everyone is and how horrible everyone has been to it.

Shortly after that, things degenerated further. Trump pulled out a chart with the words “reciprocal tariffs” emblazoned on it, listing the tariff each country charged the US and what the US would charge it in return. It looked like something out of US daytime television – those garish cheaply produced shows where you can win a cash prize if you spin a wheel. You half expected a showgirl to appear behind the American flags, draped over a tariff quota rate. That’s what he is really: a cheap knock-off daytime TV presenter.

The numbers on the chart were pure gibberish. It stated that Vietnam had a 90 per cent tariff on US goods. Needless to say, the country does not. It stated that Japan has a 46 per cent tariff on US goods. Obviously, it does not.

The administration claims that these numbers represent tariff rates and non-tariff barriers. They don’t. Internet sleuths soon worked it out. Trump’s team appears to have taken the US’s trade deficit with the country and divided it by the country’s exports. The US has a $17.9bn trade deficit with Indonesia and Indonesian exports to the US are $28bn. They divided 17.9 by 28, got 0.64 and presented it as a 64 per cent tariff.

It’s hard to state just how nonsensical that actually is. You might as well divide the numbers of apples in your kitchen by the number of bagels and use it to calculate your mortgage rate. To criticise it on political or economic grounds is too generous. It operates below the level of rational thought.

The impact will be horrific, for everyone. There will be price explosions in the US. Goods which consumers had become used to buying cheaply – from garden chairs to cutlery – will rocket up in price. The items Americans most covet, like Apple smartphones, are built in China and to a lesser extent India. The first now has a 34 per cent tariff and the second a 26 per cent tariff, according to Trump’s madcap mathematical whimsy. As prices soar, workers will demand higher wages, triggering a return to inflation. US exporters will be battered by reciprocal tariffs imposed by Canada, the EU and others.

Trump will try to do individual deals with countries in order to reduce these tariffs. But this will not really help that much. Trade deals require rules-of-origin agreements – assessment systems for where a good came from, to make sure it’s not a third-country product sneaking in through the generous arrangements you’ve made with your trading partner.

This is extremely complex to work out, especially given many products, such as cars, are made with components from lots of different countries. It will require a large state capacity, equipped with the kind of expertise to deliver these kinds of technical assessments at scale. That’s unfortunate because Trump’s manchild minion Elon Musk has been setting fire to the American state while his boss sits in the White House playing with fantasy trade numbers.

No one wins here. We all lose. Countries that trade with the US lose, just like the US itself will lose. Trump himself will lose. Whether he understands it or not, he is actively worsening the very inflationary conditions which alienated voters from the Biden administration. But that brings scant reassurance on a day like today. We’ve reached a new nadir in human idiocy. The cost, in livelihoods and geopolitical stability, will be vast.