Count on this, Sean Payton: If RJ Harvey is explosive enough to make J.K. Dobbins RB2, your Denver Broncos will be team No. 1 in the AFC West.

“Don’t start counting,” said Payton, admonishing the media wretches who gathered at Broncos Park this week to watch a little spring football practice and leap to conclusions. “Don’t try to figure out the club right now. Way too early. You can go ahead and try.”

Well, although 88 long days remain before Denver kicks off the most highly anticipated NFL season around here in a decade, I’ve got it all figured out, coach.

Mark my words:

If Harvey truly possesses the skills to hit the ground running as a rookie and become the team’s first 1,000-yard rusher since 2019, allowing Dobbins to serve as a third-down back and thunder to his lightning, then Denver will end Kansas City’s nine-year stranglehold on first place in the division.

Guaranteed.

“I want to get a ring. I’ve been in the playoffs every year I’ve played (in the NFL). I’m tired of losing in ‘em, ” Dobbins said, after donning a No. 27 jersey and practicing with new teammates for the first time.

He bolted the L.A. Chargers and joined forces with Denver to make a Super Bowl run.

“That’s my goal,” Dobbins said, “to bring a Super Bowl to this city.”

Has a nice ring to it, don’t you think?

Dobbins brings proven, grown-man strength to the Broncos’ running back room.

And it’s not just because the oft-injured, 26-year-old veteran has rushed for 2,252 yards in the 37 NFL games Dobbins has played nearly twice the distance traveled on the ground by young Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estimé and Harvey in the league.

During 2024, Dobbins ranked seventh in the NFL in yards after contact per carry and was fourth in broken tackles among all running backs.

As a graybeard who has stood and observed NFL players run free and easy, without the violent consequences of getting tackled, in the sunshine of late spring even longer than the 61-year-old Payton has worked in this league, I agree with him on one big thing:

Only a fool makes any conclusive judgments on a team’s depth chart or its won-loss record in June.

Yes, even a knucklehead like me can see Harvey has a sweet burst out of a cut with a football tucked in his arm and enough straight-line speed to be a linebacker's nightmare on a wheel route.

I’m not yet convinced, however, Broncos general manager George Paton gifted Payton his new Alvin Kamara by trading back not once, but twice, in the second round to draft a University of Central Florida product that began his college career as a dual-threat quarterback.

We’ve all been straining to find the “joker” role Payton craves to add the jambalaya spice to his playbook. Maybe the most obvious answer is hidden in plain sight under our noises.

In a more limited role as a gadget player, Harvey could create a mismatch every time he joins the Denver huddle, with the ability to run, catch or throw the football. In fact, if Harvey doesn’t throw at least one TD pass as a rookie, I believe the Broncos are doing it wrong.

Despite serious physical setbacks that have run the gamut from a torn ACL to a snapped Achilles, Dobbins has shown he can carry the load as RB1 in this league.

“I thought he was one of the best backs we saw,” said Denver defensive coordinator Vance Joseph, who watched Dobbins ramble for 96 yards and a touchdown during the Chargers’ 23-16 victory in Denver last October.

But when more details of Dobbins’ contract revealed his base salary to be $2.75 million with no long-term commitment, the economics began to suggest Denver isn’t counting on him to carry this offense all the way to the Super Bowl.

And with Dobbins’ injury history, wouldn’t that be expecting too much?

The Broncos ranked Harvey higher on their draft board than other NFL teams. I want to see if he can prove Payton and Paton smarter than the rest, in the same way quarterback Bo Nix did a year ago.

“No set roles yet,” said Payton, waiting to see how the running back rotation plays out during training camp. “(But) when a play is blocked, you want to see that yardage and then some. The good runners, they add some spaghetti sauce to the recipe.”

Dobbins is meat and potatoes.

Harvey has a chance to be the secret sauce.

Yes, we know Payton can be stubbornly and almost painfully slow to trust a young player with potential in the game plan (see: Mims, Marvin).

But for Harvey to have anywhere near the impact that Nix did a year ago, he will earn the starting job from the first offensive snap of Week 1. We’ll know the Denver offense has really shifted into high gear if Dobbins can serve as a dangerous back-up capable of leading the team in rushing on any given Sunday that he comes off the bench and gets on a roll.

If that’s the case, the Broncos will pack a one-two punch at running back the Chiefs can’t match.