Iran’s regime is often described as decaying, corrupt, bankrupt and despised by its citizens. Is it about to collapse? Israel’s shock-and-awe campaign continues relentlessly: on June 16th it said it had “full air supremacy over Tehran”. On June 17th President Donald Trump called for Tehran to “immediately evacuate” and cars have already been streaming out of the city in recent days. Its shops are shuttered. On social media some Iranians have celebrated the assassination of their generals with emojis of barbequed meat. The humiliation illuminates the failure of the regime’s military strategy and, some hope, may trigger an uprising or a coup d’état, in turn creating chaos or national renewal. Yet Iran’s default is to defy its aggressors, not to capitulate. And an extended war with large civilian casualties could act to rally public opinion in an intensely nationalistic country, allowing the regime to survive and redouble its efforts to race for a bomb.
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