The GAD3 poll, conducted between April 15th and 24th, indicates a significant increase in support for the People's Party (PP) in Madrid. The PP's estimated vote share has risen by four points since the 2023 municipal elections, reaching 48.5%, potentially securing 30 council seats (one more than in 2023). This leaves the left with limited chances, according to the poll.
The poll shows a decline in support for Más Madrid, which would drop from 19.1% to 16.9% of the vote, potentially losing two council seats. Conversely, the PSOE, led by Reyes Maroto, is predicted to gain ground, rising from 16.8% to 19.5% and potentially securing an additional council seat. This would make the PSOE the leading left-wing party in Madrid. Podemos and Izquierda Unida's support is significantly down, suggesting they may not obtain representation in the city council.
The combined estimated vote share for the PP and Vox stands at 57.8%, a considerable increase compared to the 2023 election results. The left-wing parties, PSOE and Más Madrid combined, would have 36.4%, significantly trailing the right-wing bloc. The poll highlights the contrasting trajectories of the right and left-wing political forces in Madrid.