America Will Miss Europe's Security Dependence When It's Gone

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Key Shifts in Transatlantic Relations

The United States' long-standing push for greater European defense spending and risk-sharing is contrasted with its simultaneous efforts to maintain European dependence. This created tensions, exemplified by events like De Gaulle's withdrawal of French forces from NATO command.

Europe's Growing Strategic Autonomy

The collapse of the Soviet Union and subsequent concerns over US leadership under various administrations, particularly the Trump administration, have propelled Europe towards greater strategic autonomy. The Saint-Malo agreement marked a turning point, emphasizing the EU's capacity for independent action.

Impact of the War in Ukraine

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has accelerated this trend. Disillusionment with US actions, including concerns about potential US withdrawal of support or even opposition to European action, has galvanized European efforts to strengthen their defense capabilities.

Consequences for the US

The article discusses the ramifications for the US. These include:

  • Reduced sales of US weapons systems due to concerns about potential US control ('kill switches') and distrust of the US.
  • Decreased intelligence sharing as European countries seek to protect their intelligence from potential US interference.
  • Erosion of US influence over European affairs.

The Future of the Transatlantic Relationship

The article suggests that the US will ultimately have to contend with a more independent and capable Europe. While this could result in a more equal partnership on some issues, it also indicates a loss of US leverage and influence over European affairs, which may be something the US comes to regret.

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