China hawks are losing influence in Trumpworld, despite the trade war

Key Argument

The article posits that despite the trade war with China, hardline China hawks within Donald Trump's administration are losing influence. Policy decisions seem inconsistent, reflecting internal disagreements.

Factions within Trump's Administration

The author highlights three distinct factions within Trump's foreign policy team:

• Primacists: Aim to restore America's global dominance and confront all threats.
• Prioritisers: Believe America should focus solely on China, potentially abandoning commitments elsewhere (such as in Ukraine).
• Restrainers: Advocate for prioritizing domestic issues and avoiding foreign entanglements.

The trade war has exacerbated these existing divisions, rather than creating a unified response.

Shifting Influence

The central claim is that regardless of Trump's personal stance, the traditional hardline China hawks (both primacists and prioritisers) are witnessing a decline in their power to shape policy.