Como Trump pode levar democracia dos EUA ao colapso - 22/02/2025 - Ilustríssima - Folha

Key Arguments

This article argues that Donald Trump's second term as US president poses a significant threat to American democracy. It predicts a shift towards "competitive authoritarianism," where elections are maintained but the ruling party uses state power to repress opposition and manipulate the system. This contrasts with a classic dictatorship where elections are entirely illegitimate and opposition is violently suppressed.

Trump's Strategy

The article details several key methods through which Trump plans to consolidate power and undermine democracy:

• Politicizing the Bureaucracy: Replacing civil servants with loyalists to control the administration and suppress dissent.
• Using the State as a Weapon: Leveraging law enforcement and tax agencies to investigate, prosecute, and intimidate political opponents, media outlets, and civil society organizations.
• Strategic Lawsuits: Employing politically motivated lawsuits to silence criticism and financially exhaust opponents.
• Patronage and Cooptation: Rewarding loyal companies with government contracts and favors, thereby incentivizing compliance and silencing criticism.

Potential for Resilience

Despite these concerns, the article acknowledges potential points of resilience within the American system:

• Strong Institutions: The independent judiciary, federalism, and the bicameral legislature could pose significant checks on executive power.
• Limited Public Support: Trump's comparatively low approval ratings limit his ability to enact sweeping changes and consolidate power.
• Robust Civil Society: Well-funded and organized opposition groups offer a counterbalance to the administration's efforts.

Conclusion

The authors conclude that while a full-blown dictatorship is unlikely, the weakening of democratic norms and institutions under Trump's second term represents a serious threat to American democracy and has implications for global democracy. The success of the opposition will hinge on its ability to remain engaged and withstand the pressures of competitive authoritarianism.