Wisconsin's voting patterns since 2016 have shown dramatic swings between Republican and Democratic victories, depending on the type of election and the presence of Donald Trump on the ballot. In presidential elections, Trump's appeal to white, non-college-educated voters has proven decisive, while in off-year elections, higher turnout among college-educated, anti-Trump voters has favored Democrats.
The recent Democratic victory in Wisconsin's Supreme Court race illustrates this trend. High turnout among highly educated, Democratic voters in urban areas contrasted with lower turnout in pro-Trump, less educated areas. This pattern is also evident in other special and off-year elections.
This dynamic suggests that when Trump is on the ballot, lower-propensity voters, including some voters of color, are more likely to turn out for him, even if they don't support other Republicans. When Trump isn't on the ballot, highly motivated anti-Trump voters, including some former Republicans, turn out at higher rates for Democratic candidates, while lower-propensity Trump voters stay home.
This two-electorate dynamic presents both opportunities and challenges for Democrats. While it leads to victories in off-year elections, it might not translate to success in presidential elections without Trump on the ballot. Democrats need to adapt their strategies to address this complex situation and mitigate Trump's influence before the next presidential cycle.