Election 2025: The political science that could explain the federal election result

Thermostatic Voting

The article discusses the theory of thermostatic voting, where voters push policy back towards their views, explaining shifts in political outcomes like Tony Abbott's win and subsequent defeat.

Long-term Structural Changes

It highlights research suggesting a gradual shift towards the center-left in the Australian electorate since 1996, particularly among young voters, contradicting the idea that voters' views change with age.

• The Coalition's historically low vote share among voters under 40.
• Increased electoral volatility and movement towards minor parties.

Policy Over Politics

Finally, it emphasizes a growing trend where voters prioritize policy over political narratives, suggesting a need for parties to focus on detailed policy platforms to regain voter support.