Eleições: Lula ficaria atrás de Bolsonaro, Michell... | VEJA

Key Findings: 2026 Presidential Election Poll

A Paraná Pesquisas poll from April 16-19, 2025, indicates that in a potential 2026 presidential runoff, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva would place behind several opponents, including Jair Bolsonaro, Michelle Bolsonaro, and Tarcísio de Freitas.

Second-Round Scenarios

• Lula vs. Bolsonaro: Bolsonaro would receive 46% of votes against Lula's 40.4%. This difference is outside the margin of error.
• Lula vs. Michelle Bolsonaro: Michelle Bolsonaro would achieve 45% versus Lula's 41%, resulting in a technical tie within the margin of error.
• Lula vs. Tarcísio de Freitas: Freitas would obtain 43.4% against Lula's 40.6%, constituting another technical tie.

First-Round Scenarios

The poll also simulated various first-round scenarios, showing Lula leading against some opponents, tying with others, and losing to Bolsonaro. The results indicate a highly contested election.

Methodology

The Paraná Pesquisas survey involved 2,020 voters across Brazil, conducted from April 16th to 19th, 2025, with a 95% confidence level.