Following six weeks of intense fighting, a ceasefire brokered by Russia ended the 2020 war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. Approximately 2,000 people perished. While Azerbaijan, supported by Turkey, declared victory, Armenia's leader described the truce as 'painful'. Russia's role solidified its influence in the South Caucasus.
The conflict stemmed from the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, leading to a war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, an autonomous region within Azerbaijan largely populated by ethnic Armenians. By 1994, Armenia controlled Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding districts. In 2020, Azerbaijan launched an offensive to reclaim these territories.
Russia, initially neutral, brokered a ceasefire after Azerbaijan, aided by Turkish drones, made significant territorial gains. Russia deployed troops along the Armenian border to prevent the conflict from escalating. A simultaneous Russian airstrike in Syria against Turkish-backed militants is seen as a warning to Turkey.
Armenia withdrew troops from territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan retained control of conquered areas and will construct a road connecting its mainland to Nakhchivan. Russia deployed 2,000 peacekeepers to patrol between Azeri forces and Nagorno-Karabakh, including the Lachin corridor connecting the enclave to Armenia.
Russia's role in enforcing the ceasefire solidified its influence in the region, despite Turkey's support for Azerbaijan. While Russia achieved its goal of deploying peacekeepers, Turkey's increasing assertiveness presents a new challenge to Russia's dominance.
The conflict is not resolved. The power balance now favors Azerbaijan, although Nagorno-Karabakh's status remains unsettled, suggesting the conflict is merely postponed.