Federal election 2025: We don’t know who won the election but who won the campaign is clear

Key Findings

While current polls show the Coalition slightly ahead in overall voter preference (31% to 28%), Labor has significantly closed the gap recently. This shift is attributed to several key factors:

• Labor's focus on managing the cost of living through measures such as increased Medicare funding and energy bill subsidies.
• A small personal tax cut offered by Labor, which was subsequently rejected by the Coalition.
• Albanese's improved standing as preferred leader, contrasted by Dutton's declining net performance rating.
• Voter sentiment negatively affected by association with Donald Trump, impacting Dutton's support.

Labor's Strategic Moves

Labor's recent policy decisions, including significant financial investments in healthcare and cost of living relief, have proven effective in swaying public opinion.

Dutton's Challenges

Peter Dutton's fluctuating policy positions and declining approval ratings present a significant obstacle to his campaign. His rejection of Labor's proposed tax cut further exacerbated the situation.

Poll Implications

While the Resolve Political Monitor shows a lead for Labor within the margin of error, it's crucial to note that this is a snapshot in time and doesn't guarantee the election outcome. The significant improvement for Labor, however, presents a significant challenge for Dutton, requiring a substantial shift in public opinion before the election.