Federal election 2025: We don’t know who won the election but who won the campaign is clear

Key Takeaways

While the Coalition holds a slight lead in voter preference (31% to 28%), Labor has gained ground, primarily due to policy changes and improved leadership by Albanese. The Resolve Political Monitor shows Labor's gains following key policy announcements like increased Medicare funding and energy bill subsidies, coupled with a small personal tax cut. Dutton's negative net performance rating, exacerbated by his stance against the Labor tax cut, has also contributed to Labor's improved standing.

Labor's Strategic Moves

• Significant investments in Medicare and urgent care.
• Energy bill subsidies and tax deduction simplifications.
• A small personal tax cut.

These policies have resonated with voters, narrowing the gap between Labor and the Coalition. Although voters still slightly favor the Coalition's proposed tax packages on housing, Labor's overall package is slightly preferred.

Dutton's Challenges

• Policy inconsistencies and reversals on issues like working from home and electric vehicles.
• Negative net performance rating, impacting his leadership appeal.
• Negative association with Donald Trump.

Dutton's declining leadership rating and negative association with Trump have significantly impacted his standing in the campaign. The perceived negative impact of Trump on Australia has swayed voters against Dutton.

Overall Outlook

The Resolve Political Monitor suggests that Labor has a slight advantage, but the margin of error is significant. While the survey reflects the national mood, the actual election outcome could vary greatly. Dutton faces a considerable challenge to overcome the current deficit.