The 2025 federal election in the Australian electorate of Calwell witnessed an unusual outcome, with the third and fourth-placed candidates having a realistic chance of winning. This was largely attributed to a 9.6% swing against Labor in 2022 and significant internal party conflicts regarding the selection of candidates. Discontent over the party's preselection process, particularly the intervention of the ALP national executive, caused significant rifts within the party.
The seat's diverse ethnic and religious composition also played a significant role. Abdo, who is Muslim, could potentially become the first Palestinian-Australian elected to federal parliament; however, his preselection was criticized by Assyrian, Chaldean, and Syriac organizations due to a perceived lack of community consultation.
The intricate preference flows between the independents and the Liberal candidate drastically altered the dynamics of the election. The independents, encouraging voters to prefer each other, increased their combined chances. The preference deal facilitated by Victorian Liberal MP Evan Mulholland created an environment where the top four candidates had a chance of winning. Even the Greens, usually supportive of Labor, placed Youhana higher than Abdo on their how-to-vote cards.
The unusually close race demonstrated the major swings away from major parties and the significant frustration among voters. The Calwell seat, traditionally a safe Labor seat for over 40 years, turned into a contest where Labor's victory was far from certain due to the combined effect of internal party divisions and voter dissatisfaction. The outcome highlights the unpredictability of the electoral landscape and the significant impact of local issues and community engagement in Australian politics.