First drought, then floods, the effects of stopping the Indus Water Treaty are starting to be seen; How India is playing the long game in 3 steps | આજનું એક્સપ્લેનર: પહેલા દુકાળ પછી પૂર, સિંધુ જળ સમજૂતી રોકવાની અસર દેખાવા લાગી; ભારત 3 સ્ટેપમાં કેવી રીતે રમી રહ્યું છે લાંબી રમત | Divya Bhaskar

Key Actions and Suspensions

Following a terrorist attack in Pehelgaam, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty. This decision, while seemingly retaliatory, is analyzed as a strategic move by India in a three-step plan.

Impact on Pakistan

While India cannot completely stop water flow to Pakistan, the suspension affects water data sharing and allows for controlled releases, potentially causing water shortages and localized flooding in Pakistan.

• India's control over upstream dams and water flow gives it leverage.
• Pakistan's reliance on the Indus system for agriculture and hydropower makes it vulnerable.

India's Three-Step Plan

Experts suggest India's strategy involves three phases:

• Step 1: Renegotiating the Treaty: India aims to renegotiate a more favorable Indus Waters Treaty, citing its unfair nature and Pakistan's lack of cooperation.
• Step 2: Maximizing Domestic Water Use: India is improving its utilization of its share of the water, primarily from eastern rivers, via new projects and infrastructural improvements.
• Step 3: Diverting Water Flow Long Term: India plans to undertake extensive long-term projects to divert water away from Pakistan, improving water storage and building new dams and infrastructure.

Geopolitical Implications

Pakistan's dependence on the Indus makes this a high-stakes geopolitical issue, leading to international pressure on India and potential involvement from China.

• China's potential role is mentioned but it's unlikely China would intervene due to existing tensions and its own water management policies.
• The legal implications of the treaty suspension and the possible roles of international courts or arbitration are highlighted.