The article details a tentative agreement between the US and Ukraine for joint exploitation of Ukrainian minerals, primarily focusing on the improbable claim of significant rare earth reserves. The deal, negotiated after a failed attempt in February, is spearheaded by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko.
The agreement’s foundation, largely based on former President Trump’s assertion of half a trillion dollars worth of rare earths in Ukraine, is heavily contested. Authoritative sources, such as the US Geological Survey (USGS), find no evidence to support this claim. The available data suggests that any potential rare earth presence is based on outdated Soviet-era analyses and lacks confirmation of commercially viable quantities.
The global rare earth market is significantly smaller than Trump's claim suggests, with China dominating production.
While the rare earth claim is questionable, Ukraine possesses reserves of other strategic minerals, including grafite (6% of global reserves, placing it in the lead in Europe), lithium, and some gas and oil reserves. However, these are also relatively limited compared to global giants such as Australia, Brazil, and China.
Several factors hinder the viability of the deal. These include:
The absence of significant interest from mining companies and the potential for non-US entities to benefit from the deal underline the deal's uncertainties and question its practical success. The article concludes with a note of concern over the agreement, highlighting the questionable claims of rare earth reserves and the significant obstacles to its implementation.