The article centers on the discussion between experts Sharat Sabharwal and Lieutenant General (Retired) Deependra Singh Hooda about the Pahalgam terror attack and its implications on India-Pakistan ties. The attack is seen as crossing a red line, escalating already strained relations.
Experts debated about whether non-military options are exhausted. Sabharwal points to the lack of diplomacy and public sentiment favoring strong action. Hooda suggests that while some non-military options remain, Pakistan's hostility indicates a potential military response. The ‘free hand’ given to the military is clarified as pertaining to preparation, not independent action.
The experts assess the government’s diplomatic measures, particularly the impact of holding the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance. Past responses to attacks in 2008, 2016, and 2019 are reviewed, highlighting the varied outcomes and the need for a well-planned response to anticipate Pakistani retaliation (a 'quid pro quo plus' strategy).
The conversation explores different potential military responses: surgical strikes, targeting the LeT leadership, and the consideration of the Chinese role and its implications. There’s a consensus against actions like taking PoK, suggesting instead a focus on low-profile actions to limit escalation. The likelihood of future bilateral diplomatic engagement is viewed as low, with the relationship hampered by India's 'no talks with terrorists' policy and Pakistan's demands. The authors suggest a focus on managing the relationship with minimum damage, emphasizing the need for a balance between coercion and diplomacy.
The current Pakistan Army chief, General Asim Munir, is highlighted as a hardliner, contrasting him with previous chiefs. His aggressive stance and the nature of the Pahalgam attack are seen as deliberate provocations, potentially indicating Pakistan Army involvement.