How China’s Echo Chamber Threatens Taiwan | Foreign Affairs

Key Factors Driving Conflict Risk

The article highlights the growing risk of military conflict in the Taiwan Strait, driven not solely by Xi Jinping's intentions but also by the dynamics within China's political system. An echo chamber effect, fueled by Xi's assertive rhetoric and demand for obedience, has created strong incentives for officials to prepare for war, regardless of whether Xi orders an invasion.

China's Internal Feedback Loop

Xi's emphasis on unification with Taiwan, combined with media censorship of dissenting voices and promotion of anti-American narratives, has fostered an environment of overconfidence and paranoia. Public and elite opinions are increasingly shaped by hawkish voices, creating a self-reinforcing cycle where actions are perceived as necessary to defend China's territorial integrity.

• Policy elites endorse coercive unification, focusing on strategies rather than questioning the approach.
• The media fixates on military achievements, reinforcing the belief in the feasibility of military action.
• Even diplomats have adopted a confrontational stance, lacking internal checks on aggressive tendencies.

Addressing the Challenge

The article argues that a narrow focus on Xi's plans is insufficient; understanding China's internal feedback loop is crucial. Instead of solely relying on deterrence, the international community must actively engage in shaping perceptions within China.

• Engage in dialogues with Chinese experts on international law and norms, challenging the belief in an unquestionable legal right to use force.
• Promote research on the potential consequences of a conflict to counter optimistic risk assessments.
• Refine messaging to emphasize respect for China's contributions and the benefits of peaceful resolution.
• Address Chinese narratives about Western threats, acknowledging their underlying beliefs rather than dismissing them as mere propaganda.

The authors conclude that a coherent strategy to dispel misperceptions and foster open discussions is vital to prevent a potentially catastrophic war.