How the U.S. Lost the Canadian Election - The Atlantic

Trump's Influence on the Canadian Election

The article analyzes how Donald Trump's actions heavily influenced the 2025 Canadian election, leading to the Liberals' victory against the Conservatives who were initially predicted to win. Trump's hostility towards Canada, including tariff wars and annexation threats, framed the election as a referendum on Canada's national identity and sovereignty.

Economic Factors and Leadership

The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, focused on Canada's housing crisis and economic issues resulting from Justin Trudeau's policies (high government spending, increased taxes, and high immigration without adequate housing). Despite Poilievre's initially high poll numbers and some popularity, the negative effects of Trump's actions overshadowed these issues.

Liberals' Strategic Response

The Liberals, initially expected to lose, strategically replaced Trudeau with Mark Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England. Carney's experience and reputation as an effective leader appealed to voters concerned about Trump's threats.

Reasons for Liberal Victory

• The Liberals were seen as more America-skeptical compared to the Conservatives, making them a safer choice during the rising tension.
• Some Conservative elements incorporated Trump-like rhetoric and policies, alienating some voters.
• Trump's actions created a demand for a strong and capable leader, a role that Carney successfully filled.

Consequences and Future Outlook

The article concludes that Trump's actions severely damaged America's reputation and inadvertently pushed Canada towards greater statism and protectionism. This shift in Canada's economic policy could have negative implications for the US. The author calls for America to return to its role as a champion of global economic freedom.