The Afzalpur Assembly Constituency election features a triangular contest between Malikayya Guttedar (BJP), M.Y. Patil (Congress), and Nitin V. Guttedar (Independent). Nitin Guttedar, brother of Malikayya Guttedar, is considered a potential spoilsport.
Malikayya Guttedar has a six-time winning record, representing the constituency under various parties (Congress, Karnataka Congress Party, and Janata Dal (Secular)). M.Y. Patil has won three times, representing different parties.
Nitin Guttedar's independent candidacy is likely to split votes, significantly altering the election dynamics. Many senior party workers from both BJP and Congress have joined him.
The constituency's demographics are significant; Veerashiva Lingayat (68,000 votes), Kabbaliga/Koli (44,000 votes), Scheduled Castes/Tribes (38,000 votes), Kurubas (20,000 votes), and Muslims (26,000 votes) are major communities. The distribution of the Kabbaliga community's votes is uncertain, with candidates from Janata Dal (Secular) and Samajwadi Party vying for them.
Political analysts suggest that the sibling rivalry between Malikayya and Nitin Guttedar may benefit M.Y. Patil. Malikayya Guttedar's past disagreements with Congress leaders and his shift to BJP before the 2018 election are highlighted as factors influencing the current situation.