India, despite its pacifist culture, acquired nuclear weapons due to its proximity to nuclear-armed neighbors, China and Pakistan, with whom it has territorial disputes. India's nuclear doctrine emphasizes credible minimum deterrence with a no-first-use policy, focusing on countervalue targeting (inflicting unacceptable damage on adversary's population centers) rather than counterforce (destroying their military capabilities).
The article highlights a lack of public debate on India's nuclear arsenal size and composition, primarily due to the civilian Atomic Energy Commission's lead role in early nuclear research and development. Various analysts' opinions on the optimal warhead number range widely (from a few dozen to over 400), with differing views on the necessary yield (kilotons to megatons). The impact of China's nuclear acquisition and rising China-Pakistan nuclear cooperation fuelled India's nuclear weapons pursuit.
The article delves into the complex calculations regarding the number of warheads needed for credible minimum deterrence. Different approaches, minimalist, middle path, and maximalist, are explored, showcasing varying estimates on warhead quantities and delivery systems (ballistic missiles, aircraft, SLBMs).
The article details India's nuclear triad: land-based missiles (Prithvi, Agni series), air-delivered bombs (carried by Jaguar, Mirage-2000, Su-30MKI, and Rafale aircraft), and sea-based missiles (SLBMs deployed on SSBNs like INS Arihant). The necessity of a triad is explained due to the vulnerability of air and land-based systems to first strikes.
Estimates of India's current warhead stockpile vary (90-110 according to SIPRI). The article argues for a minimum of 200 warheads, considering factors such as survivability of delivery systems against first strikes, aiming for deterrence, and the necessity of a robust command and control system to ensure effective retaliation.
The article compares India's nuclear capabilities with those of China and Pakistan, highlighting the China-Pakistan nuclear nexus and Pakistan's rapidly growing arsenal including tactical nuclear weapons. China's modernization efforts and Pakistan's pursuit of full-spectrum deterrence pose significant challenges to India.
The article concludes by proposing measures to strengthen India's nuclear deterrence, including technological advancements in missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles, continuing nuclear testing to enhance warhead design and improve delivery system accuracy, developing ballistic missile defense systems, and seeking strategic partners. India's policy should simultaneously pursue nuclear deterrence and total nuclear disarmament through international diplomacy.