This article analyzes Iran's declining influence in Iraq, a key component of its regional 'axis of resistance'. The weakening of Iranian-backed groups in Lebanon and Syria, coupled with recent compromises by the Iraqi government with the US, signals a potential shift in the regional power dynamics.
Iran heavily relies on Iraq's economy, using it to circumvent sanctions and fund its operations. Iranian-backed militias engage in oil theft and control lucrative contracts, benefiting from Iraq's lack of sanctions on its oil exports. This economic dependence makes maintaining control in Iraq crucial for Iran.
Iran's influence extends to Iraq's political system, as evidenced by its role in selecting prime ministers and manipulating election outcomes. The article highlights the US's past habit of supporting even pro-Iranian leaders and suggests a shift towards supporting genuinely Iraqi interests.
The article proposes a US strategy to counter Iranian influence in Iraq that combines:
This strategy aims to weaken Iran's grip on the Iraqi government, promote a more independent Iraq, and potentially improve the leverage in nuclear negotiations.
Successfully dislodging Iran from Iraq would deal a significant blow to Iran's regional influence and could create opportunities to secure a better nuclear deal. However, the article acknowledges the complexity of this task, as Iran maintains considerable influence within the Iraqi government.