The article analyzes the potential impact of proposed Medicaid cuts within the GOP's budget reconciliation bill. It draws parallels to the failed attempts to repeal and replace Obamacare in 2017, highlighting the political risks for Republicans and Donald Trump.
The author points to the 2017 effort to repeal and replace Obamacare as a cautionary tale. The bill's failure, largely due to Senate Republican defections, reinforced the GOP's image as an anti-healthcare party.
The current budget reconciliation bill, aiming to incorporate Trump's 2025 legislative agenda, faces similar challenges. House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith confirms Trump's reluctance to cut Medicaid benefits, but the article suggests that such cuts are virtually inevitable due to the bill's financial requirements.
The article discusses the differing political strategies proposed, including a two-bill approach favored by Senate Republicans, but ultimately rejected by Trump in favor of a single, comprehensive bill. This strategy, while potentially limiting risk, increases vulnerability to accusations that it serves to fund tax cuts for Trump's wealthy allies.
The author concludes that the proposed cuts are likely to damage Republican standing, given the political unviability of attempts to weaken healthcare programs, and that anything beyond minimizing harm will be detrimental to Trump and his party.