The article discusses the strained relationship between the US and China, focusing on the potential conflict over Taiwan. China claims sovereignty over Taiwan, while Taiwan seeks to remain an independent democracy. The US's ambiguous stance, providing arms without security guarantees, adds to the complexity.
Taiwan's economic significance, particularly in advanced semiconductor production, has increased tensions. China's substantial rise in military spending has challenged America's military dominance in Asia. While US strategists hope that a credible military threat will deter China, several factors weaken this assumption.
The article suggests a dangerous spiral could unfold, potentially resulting in Taiwan gradually falling under Chinese influence without outright war. This outcome would have significant consequences, including a blow to Taiwanese democracy, and disruption of global chip supplies. It would require significant effort to restore American dominance in the Pacific, potentially including new economic and military treaties.
Trump's protectionism and tough stance on allies, while aiming to make America great again, have ironically weakened its ability to protect Taiwan. This contradiction may encourage China to act sooner rather than later.