The GERD, a massive hydroelectric project in Ethiopia, has created significant tension in the Nile River basin. While providing benefits for Ethiopia, it poses a perceived threat to Egypt, heavily reliant on the Nile's water. Sudan, located between the two, faces the challenge of balancing potential benefits with potential negative impacts.
Negotiations among Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia have yielded limited progress. Ethiopia's unilateral filling of the reservoir, despite Egypt and Sudan's demands, escalated the situation. This action demonstrated a shift in power dynamics within the region, highlighting Ethiopia's assertion of its rights to the Nile's resources.
Egypt seeks to counter Ethiopia's growing regional influence by fostering alliances, including with Red Sea littoral states, and engaging in bilateral diplomatic and security cooperation with several countries in the region. In contrast, Ethiopia strengthens its partnerships within the Horn of Africa, forming alliances aimed at regional stability, but facing challenges due to existing rivalries.
The Nile dispute severely complicates the democratic transitions in Ethiopia and Sudan. In Ethiopia, the GERD has become a focal point of political polarization, exacerbating existing tensions and hindering democratic processes. In Sudan, Egypt's engagement favors the military over civilian leadership, hindering democratic reform.
Even with the completion of the GERD, tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia are likely to persist. The need for external mediation is acknowledged, but few external actors possess the necessary leverage and willingness to effectively mediate the dispute. Ultimately, achieving stability in the Nile River basin requires regional cooperation and a sustained effort to resolve long-standing water issues.