No Substitute for Victory: America’s Competition With China Must Be Won, Not Managed

Key Arguments

The article's central argument is that the US should adopt a more assertive and confrontational stance toward China, aiming for victory rather than mere management of competition. The author contends that the current Biden administration's policy of "managing competition" is insufficient and risks prioritizing short-term stability over long-term strategic gains. This approach, they argue, mirrors the failed détente policy of the 1970s toward the Soviet Union.

Winning the Competition

Winning, according to the author, would mean China abandoning its efforts to challenge the US and its allies, and Chinese citizens finding inspiration in alternative models of governance. This requires greater friction in US-China relations, including increased costs for Chinese leader Xi Jinping, stronger rhetoric, and a significant increase in US defense capabilities.

Biden Administration's Policy

The article criticizes the Biden administration for initially showing promise with actions such as strengthening alliances in Asia and restricting Chinese access to technology, but ultimately failing to leverage those gains. It cites the downplaying of Chinese provocations like the spy balloon incident and the Cuban military base as evidence of this failure.

• The author points to the administration’s diplomatic overtures to China as a sign of weakness, yielding little in return.
• They highlight China's support for Russia's war in Ukraine and its exploitation of the Hamas attack on Israel as examples of China's destabilizing actions.

Historical Parallels

The article draws a parallel between the current situation and the 1970s, when the détente policy toward the Soviet Union proved ineffective. It contrasts the détente approach with the Reagan administration's more assertive stance, arguing that the latter ultimately led to the Soviet Union's collapse.

Recommendations

The author proposes a three-pronged approach: rearmament, reduction of China's economic leverage, and recruitment of a broader coalition. This includes increasing defense spending, strengthening supply chains, halting technology transfers, and pursuing bilateral trade agreements with allies.

• It emphasizes the need to improve US military capabilities and position them strategically.
• It suggests repealing China's permanent normal trade relations status and imposing higher tariffs on strategically important goods.
• The article also calls for recruiting skilled workers from allied countries, bolstering military recruitment, and engaging in a broader information war to counter Chinese propaganda.

Desired End State

The article concludes that the US should not fear a future where China is free from communist dictatorship. It argues that Xi Jinping's rule has caused widespread dissatisfaction in China, and a shift toward a more open and democratic China could be beneficial for both countries.