Onet's latest forecast shows Rafał Trzaskowski leading with 36.2% support in the first round, down 1.6 percentage points. Karol Nawrocki follows with 24.5%, also experiencing a decrease. Sławomir Mentzen's support remains stagnant at 19.4%. Szymon Hołownia shows a slight increase to 6.7%. Adrian Zandberg gains momentum reaching 2.8%, potentially surpassing Magdalena Biejat.
Studies reveal potential support ceilings: 27-30% for Nawrocki, 42% for Trzaskowski, and 23-31% for Mentzen. Trust surveys indicate Trzaskowski has the highest level of public trust, while Nawrocki's trust level is significantly lower than Andrzej Duda's in 2020.
Mentzen is viewed as a significant threat to Nawrocki, drawing from his potential electorate. A lack of attacks on Mentzen by Nawrocki is considered a risky strategy.
Trzaskowski remains the favorite in the second round with 54% support, and Nawrocki with 46%, making a Trzaskowski victory highly probable. The difference in support is attributed to the lower level of trust in Nawrocki compared to Duda in 2020.
The forecast uses support polls for candidates in the second round and parliamentary party polls to determine the electoral climate. The final support estimation is through a combination of methods, weighting polls based on date, historical error, and bias.