The article explores the increasing likelihood of nuclear war, citing various potential flashpoints such as the India-Pakistan conflict and tensions in the Middle East and the Pacific. It highlights the lack of preparedness in many countries in the event of such a war, contrasting this with the existence of deconfliction channels between major powers.
The piece discusses the multiple actors involved, emphasizing the growing nuclear arsenals of various countries, and that the logic of destruction is unchanged, despite more players involved. The article stresses the fast-paced nature of nuclear escalation and the limited time for decision-making by leaders during a crisis.
The article details the different types of nuclear weapons and their destructive power. Modern thermonuclear weapons are far more potent than the atomic bombs used in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The article references the Nukemap tool which allows simulation of the impact of various warheads.
The article explains the immediate effects of a nuclear detonation, including blast radius and radioactive fallout. It emphasizes the destructive potential of even smaller nuclear weapons. The article warns about radioactive fallout, depending on the altitude of the detonation.
The article discusses the long-term consequences of nuclear war, particularly the phenomenon of nuclear winter, where massive smoke and dust in the atmosphere cause a drastic drop in global temperatures and agriculture collapse. The article cites the work of Prof Alan Robock on nuclear winter and its potential impact on global food supplies, causing mass starvation.
The article examines survival prospects in the aftermath of nuclear war, acknowledging that some regions might be less affected but not all. It notes that existing emergency plans are inadequate to deal with the scale of destruction in a nuclear war. The article reveals the lack of genuine plans for the general population in most countries.
The article questions the effectiveness of deterrence, suggesting a weakening taboo against nuclear weapons use. The possibility of using “small” nuclear weapons is discussed, as well as the lack of preparedness and planning among decision-makers in the event of such a scenario. The article concludes by emphasizing the need for more serious planning and acknowledgment of the catastrophic consequences of nuclear war.